PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; WEEK FIFTY-THREE!! GAME! SET! MATCH!

[dmillos]

curl-6 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

This is an interesting table.  One thing it clearly shows is that systems that peak later tend to have more sales after 60 months.  It also shows that even after 60 months, Switch is still going to have something like 25-36% of it's lifetime sales if it behaves like past systems. 

There are some people who think Switch sales are going to magically plummet soon, but historically that doesn't happen unless a new system gets released early.  For the past few years Nintendo executives have been talking about lengthening the Switch's lifetime.  It is not likely to get cut short by a new system.  It is actually more likely that the opposite will happen.

Yeah the "Switch cliff" has always been more wishful thinking than realistic prediction. I mean, it's not impossible that Nintendo will lose their marbles and release a premature successor, they've certainly made similarly stupid moves in the past, but it's highly unlikely based on the facts at hand.

I agree with both of you, even if this is the Peak year for the Switch, it is looking at at least 50M more in sales. But personally, unless Nintendo has another revolutionary technology like the Wii that they must release, they will probably take their time and the switch is in prime position now to reach 150M lifetime.

This to me sounds like a conservative scenario:

Year	Total Sales
2020	75,000,000
2021	100,000,000
2022	117,000,000
2023	131,000,000
2024	143,000,000
2025	150,000,000