| PAOerfulone said: Hey @dmillos32, I see you're a new user who just recently joined. In case it hasn't been done already, allow me to be the first to say to you "Welcome to VGChartz!" And thank you for following this thread and for your support and enthusiasm! To answer your questions: 1) 5 weeks will be counted to December. I am well aware of the slippery slope of that Dec.-Jan. week where we go into the new year and "Will that count for this year or next year?" The key in that is to look for how many days of that week are in this year, and how many are in the next. For example: Since this particular week in question ends on Jan. 2nd, that means that week will include 2 days of the next year, while the other 5 days will be from this year. As a result, that week will be counted for this year, making this December a 5 week period. That's why this year is a 53-week year as opposed to a 52-week one. 2) Thank you for pointing out those discrepancies. When you have to go back and update ALL the numbers for 4 different regions dating back to the beginning of the year, there will be a few weeks here and there that will slip through the cracks. So thank you for catching that for me. I just made those changes and updates. 3) What I do is I take last year's sales, how much it sold up to the current week last year, and divide it by its final yearly total. From there, I get a percentage. I take the current yearly total for THIS year and divide it by that percentage. And that's where I get the projections for this year. For example: Let's look at the Switch: At this point last year, the Switch sold 15,428,595 units. So I take that stat and I divide it by 19,278,788 units, which is it's final yearly total. So, it looks like this: 15,428,595/19,278,788 = .8002886385 (80.02886385%) Now, I take its current yearly total for this year. As of this moment, the Switch has sold 23,445,249 units in 2020 thus far. So, I'll take that and divide it by the percentage: 23,445,249/.8002886385 And that leads me to the current projection of: 29,295,991 units. And those projections are ALWAYS changing. Every time we get new numbers and I update the tables or make adjustments, that projection changes. And as the year progresses, we get closer and closer to the actual total to where we can make a ballpark estimate. |
Hi @PAOerfulone Thank you very much for your kind welcome.
Thank you also for such a wonderful reply!
1)I see why this would be the case, I was not counting month totals like that, so this definitely changes some of my estimates.
2) I am very glad I could help, if maybe there are some other numbers you need double checking, count on me, I enjoy doing that.
3)This is a great response, makes my mind wonder and I want to do some analysis of how this is done. I am in no way an expert of projections so I want to explore this concept very well. It might take some time for me to analyze this but with a first look, it seems like it is inflating the projection a little bit when you get such a wonderful mid year like 2020.
Thank you for explaining step by step how you do it. I was a perfect explanation. i wonder how this projection has been changing since the beginning of the year. Probably it started much lower then it skyrocketed to something like 35-40 and then it is coming down almost as fast.
Anyways I will hopefully be able to learn much more from you, thank you for your time.
