| PAOerfulone said: Week 49 Breakdown: |
Hi @PAOerfulone First of all, Thank you for this amazing thread, it is a lot of work and it is cool to see it.
I was wondering how you do your projections. I have a couple of questions.
1) How many weeks are going to be counted towards December this year? As far as I can tell, only weeks that end (on saturday) inside a month count, therefore only weeks ending on Dec 5,12,19 and 26 will count, the one ending on Jan 2 will count towards next year. Is that correct?
2) I noticed tiny discrepancies in three different weeks, these are weeks that recently got revised so that might have caused the difference:
| Week | VGChartz | Post | Diff |
| 26 | 395987 | 395387 | 600 |
| 46 | 618876 | 618176 | 700 |
| 47 | 736541 | 736941 | -400 |
3) My best guess is that you are currently taking the % de switch is ahead of itself from 2019 (about 52%) and you are multiplying that by how much the switch did in 2019's last three weeks.
It is really hard for a console to maintain these high margins during holiday season. When comparing 2019 and 2018 the switch was able to increase by about 9%
| Last 3 weeks | |||
| Week | 2018 | 2019 | Diff |
| -2 | 1,319,351 | 1,369,224 | 104% |
| -1 | 1,452,755 | 1,554,176 | 107% |
| Last | 774,701 | 926,543 | 120% |
| 3WeekTotal | 3,546,807 | 3,849,943 | 109% |
If the switch is able to mantain a 9% increase from 2019, then the last three weeks should be around 4,178,987 units for a total of 27,623,336 in 2020.
4) Just as an example, on september the switch was up almost 80% from 2019, and now it is about 52%
Once again, thank you for a wonderful post and I will be watching closely to see what ends up happening.
