China is officially Switch's 4th biggest market

[noshten]

I think you are underestimate the size of the market. Just because China's Mobile market dwarfs everything else it doesn't mean that Switch cannot carve out a pretty big niche there. Potentially if there is enough mass adoption it could become Nintendo's main growth engine in the next few years. 10 million is honestly the floor Ryng, you've become far more conservative over the years

With Tencent being a strategic partner, and very strong support from 3rd Parties - Switch could literally explode on the scene there. Currently Nintendo has only launched four titles officially in China. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Super Mario Odyssey, NSMBUD which all launched in March and Ring Fit Adventure which launched in September. Honestly some of the most popular games in Japan/Asia are still not officially launched in China
- New Horizon
- Smash Ultimate
- Pokemon Sword / Shield
- Splatoon 2
- Super Mario Party

Than we also notice that a lot of third parties are also focusing on Chinese localization - basically at some point these third party games will make it through the Chinese regulatory process - Monster Hunter Rise, DQXIS, Taiko, Fishing Spirits, Age of Calamity, Sakuna, Olive Town, Rune Factory 5, Bravely Default 2 etc.A person can import from overseas or buy from the gray market so even those sales will contribute to 3rd Party growth. As long as Nintendo is selling the hardware and piracy doesn't become commonplace.