From its last report Switch moved 61 million hardwares and 406 million softwares in about 40 months
Half of these 406 million are the 37 Switch best selling games that sold over 1 million copies. This is a list filled with exclusives and first parties with a 60 USD price tag that go on sale once in a blue moon. So making a 45-50 USD average price for about 203 million softwares is pretty realistic
Other 203 millions are smaller titles, indies, B-tier 3rd parties, old third party ports, etc, etc, not only less expensive but go on sale quite often. I see a 15-20 USD on average for them
What I want to measure? The consumer expending on Switch ecosystem per user. Using this try hard estimation the average consumer spending on software sales on Switch in 40 months is anywhere from 200 USD to 240 USD. Of course this number is really inaccurate, as Switch sales are growing and new customers owns far less titles than people who got a Switch day 1 and software sales will grown like crazy in next 2 years, but it's the best I can do right now sorry
With 200-240 USD in mind we got 5-6 USD by month and that includes retailers shares from physical copies.
Game Pass is 10 USD by month with not retailers shares.
Remember GP will canibalize Switch software sales, Microsoft need to somehow prove to Nintendo they will get more $$ from GP subscriptions than from 6 bucks a month coming from sales which I doubt they will
Why? Well, for a system with majority of its sales coming from 3rd party (like Xbox) a GP cannibalization really makes sense as their biggest blockbusters profits were going to be split with studios and publishers nonetheless. But at least 40% of Switch sales are from 1st party software. Nintendo don't get 15% of software sales on its eshop, they get 100%. For Nintendo a subscription service competing with their own games will probably means revenue a losses
