Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Gamepass and live on Switch - A repeat of the past or something new?

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In an interview with Kotaku this week, head of Xbox Phil Spencer was very transparent about Microsoft's ultimate desires when it comes to Nintendo:

"it doesn’t feel sustainable" to release Xbox games on the Nintendo Switch on a case by case basis. "In order to really support it, I would want a full Xbox ecosystem somewhere. And that probably means things like Live and Game Pass and stuff.

This is a very interesting opinion by Microsoft. As you know, Nintendo has made its fortune and place thanks to the way it protected it's platform and intellectual property. Do you think that this proposition by Phil is logical, acceptable and perhaps even possibly a profitable risk to take by Nintendo? Last time a bug player tried to rob Nintendo of its royalty/ies, we got the Philips move. How do you see this position by Microsoft playing out, do you think it will improve or worsen their relationship with Nintendo? Seemingly at an all-time high with Banjo and now Minecraft in Smash enjoying a synergistic relationship, and with some MS games (Cuphead, Ori, Minecraft) having come out on Switch, and MS collaborating with Nintendo in the past on GBA rareware games, as well as with Cross-play, what is going to happen with this unholy/holy alliance.

Your ingenious thoughts always welcome and/or vote in the poll. 👍

Rol's super bonus: How do you think Gamepass on Switch would affect marketshare, mostly Sony, and how would they need to react to such a team up?

Source: 

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/445850/future-xbox-releases-on-switch-doesnt-feel-sustainable-would-want-full-ecosystem-like-live-and-game-pass-on-switch/

Last edited by padib - on 17 October 2020

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Game Pass on Switch would be a killer move. All Nintendo needs to do is be open to it and agree on a cut %.

- Nintendo and Xbox arent “direct” competitors like PS per se, so they compliment each other without taking away each other’s market.
- Xbox gets increased brand reach and Xbox portability.
- Nintendo gets steady revenue kickback



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

I rather just have physically released games on Switch. Otherwise not interested in rentals.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Not sure if Nintendo would want Gamepass on their system or not.

I do admit that Gamepass on Switch would make it the ultimate gaming system.  You could have all Nintendo 1st party games plus all major third party games too (not to mention Microsoft first party games).  I think this combo would be pretty devastating for Sony.  I also think it is all upside for Microsoft since Switch already has a large install base and it's continuing to grow rapidly.  But is it all upside for Nintendo?

In the short run it would help Nintendo.  They would sell more Switches, but they are already really successful without it.  It also has potential to bite them in the ass in the long run.  It might help Microsoft too much if they put Gamepass on Switch.  They would be helping Gamepass get popular and once that is done it probably couldn't be undone later.  And Gamepass can run on any mobile device.  Once it got popular Microsoft would have more leverage over Nintendo.

So it is probably safer for Nintendo not to allow Gamepass on Switch, from a business perspective.  But I'd have to admit, it would make for a pretty awesome gaming set up.



From its last report Switch moved 61 million hardwares and 406 million softwares in about 40 months

Half of these 406 million are the 37 Switch best selling games that sold over 1 million copies. This is a list filled with exclusives and first parties with a 60 USD price tag that go on sale once in a blue moon. So making a 45-50 USD average price for about 203 million softwares is pretty realistic

Other 203 millions are smaller titles, indies, B-tier 3rd parties, old third party ports, etc, etc, not only less expensive but go on sale quite often. I see a 15-20 USD on average for them

What I want to measure? The consumer expending on Switch ecosystem per user. Using this try hard estimation the average consumer spending on software sales on Switch in 40 months is anywhere from 200 USD to 240 USD. Of course this number is really inaccurate, as Switch sales are growing and new customers owns far less titles than people who got a Switch day 1 and software sales will grown like crazy in next 2 years, but it's the best I can do right now sorry

With 200-240 USD in mind we got 5-6 USD by month and that includes retailers shares from physical copies.
Game Pass is 10 USD by month with not retailers shares.

Remember GP will canibalize Switch software sales, Microsoft need to somehow prove to Nintendo they will get more $$ from GP subscriptions than from 6 bucks a month coming from sales which I doubt they will

Why? Well, for a system with majority of its sales coming from 3rd party (like Xbox) a GP cannibalization really makes sense as their biggest blockbusters profits were going to be split with studios and publishers nonetheless. But at least 40% of Switch sales are from 1st party software. Nintendo don't get 15% of software sales on its eshop, they get 100%. For Nintendo a subscription service competing with their own games will probably means revenue a losses 



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Gamepass on Switch would be the ultimate combo, but Nintendo won't allow for it. They want people buying Nintendo games, and that isn't going to happen as much if Switch owners have hundreds of free games on Gamepass.



The sentence below is false. 
The sentence above is true. 

 

Cerebralbore101 said:
Gamepass on Switch would be the ultimate combo, but Nintendo won't allow for it. They want people buying Nintendo games, and that isn't going to happen as much if Switch owners have hundreds of free games on Gamepass.

I don’t think that will be an issue. Nintendo 1st party games have a certain quality, whimsy and charm that can never be replicated by their competitors. A Switch owner can use Game Pass to play the next Elder Scrolls sure, but will still also buy the next Zelda and Smash games regardless. 



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

sales2099 said:

I don’t think that will be an issue. Nintendo 1st party games have a certain quality, whimsy and charm that can never be replicated by their competitors. A Switch owner can use Game Pass to play the next Elder Scrolls sure, but will still also buy the next Zelda and Smash games regardless. 

Big titles will gonna be alright, but smaller ones? Not sure. Many gamers don't have enough money or time to play/buy so many games, they will buy one or two big AAA a year and ignore smaller ones, prioritizing GP games 



Of course this is the logical end for Microsoft's strategy: Let someone else do the hard work of selling the hardware. But they would have to give Nintendo one hell of a deal like an annual flatrate of $5 billion plus an additional fee based on usage rates of Game Pass on Switch. If Nintendo got that amount of money, they might be willing to agree to an otherwise questionable proposal.

Calling the current business relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft an alliance is misguided. These aren't two console manufacturers working together, but rather one console manufacturer (Nintendo) and one third party (Microsoft). As such, there's nothing Nintendo owes to Microsoft, because the latter already gets money from being able to sell games to a big installed base.

As for the final question, such a hypothetical situation wouldn't change much for Sony. One catch is that Game Pass itself where many games would not have the option to be downloaded and played natively on Switch, so they would be streaming-only. Game streaming continues to suck, so Game Pass on Switch wouldn't be all that good to begin with. The second catch is that Nintendo-first gamers already have the option to be without a PlayStation, either by having a PC or buying an Xbox; therefore Game Pass on Switch (if we pretend that it would be good for argument's sake) would hurt PC and/or Xbox. The Nintendo-first gamers who choose a PS usually eye a bunch of games that aren't available on PC or Xbox, so Game Pass wouldn't work as substitute and the same gamers would still choose a PS.

The poll is representative of how much fantasy this whole thread is.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

I don't know enough about the financials to know how this would work... but I don't think it would necessarily be a good move for Nintendo.

It's similar to how Toys R' Us arranged with Amazon to do their online business. And by the time Toys R' Us" realized this was unsustainable, it was too late for them to build up their own online business, and they were kind of fucked.

I think Nintendo ultimately needs its own streaming/download service. I think the strength of their first party software lineup actually gives them a potentially huge advantage in that area. It would be better for them to build their own rather than letting Gamepass grow too large for them to ever compete.