noshten said:
It's at over 10 million software at the moment with New Horizon, so yep it should surpass 14 million without breaking a sweat. This will also be New Horizon and Ring Fit's first holidays with enough hardware and peripheral stock. Hence why I'm expecting those two games to be the best selling games of Q4. Both should easily surpass 1M.
Famitsu 2020 Top 50:
- NSW: Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo) - 5.828.121
- NSW: Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) - 1.173.204
- PS4: Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square) - 932.821
- NSW: Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co)- 771.782
- NSW: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) - 550.209
- PS4: Ghost of Tsushima (Sony) - 403.642
- NSW: Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo) - 403.265
- NSW: Smash Ultimate (Nintendo) - 396.548
- NSW: Minecraft (Microsoft) - 379.088
- NSW: Super Mario 3D All-Stars (Nintendo) - 330.248 (+2)
- NSW: Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) - 327.319 (-1)
- NSW: Super Mario Party (Nintendo) - 308.298 (-1)
- NSW: Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo) - 272.819
- NSW: Paper Mario: The Origami King (Nintendo) - 262.370 (+2)
- NSW: Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX (Pokemon Co.) - 259.513 (-1)
- PS4: Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 (-1)
- PS4: Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769
- NSW: eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 234.056
- PS4: The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 222.943
- NSW: Luigi's Mansion 3 (Nintendo) - 184.398 (+1)
- NSW: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) - 181.617 (+1)
- PS4: eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 180.243 (-2)
- NSW: Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) - 173.737
- NSW: New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) - 162.822 (+3)
- PS4: Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On (Bandai Namco Games) - 161.014 (-1)
- NSW: Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 160.175 (+1)
- PS4: Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 (-2)
- PS4: Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 149.898
- PS4: Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 (-1)
- NSW: Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550
- PS4: Trials of Mana (Square) - 133.593
- PS4: One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315
- NSW: Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition (Nintendo) - 128.989
- NSW: One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954
- PS4: Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094
- NSW: Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451
- NSW: Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 98.829 (+1)
- PS4: The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki (Nihon Falcom) - 96.140 (-1)
- NSW: Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) - 85.247 (+3)
- PS4: Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris (Bandai) - 85.010 (-1)
- NSW: Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 82.137 (-1)
- NSW: Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558 (-1)
- NSW: Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 65.653
- PS4: Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne (Capcom) - 63.322
- NSW: Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 62.949
- PS4: Marvel's Avengers (Square Enix) - 61.487 (+4)
- NSW: Pokemon Let's Go (Pokemon Co) - 57.478 (-1)
- NSW: Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix) - 56.187 (-1)
- PS4: Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition (Take-Two) - 54.860 (-1)
- NSW: Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) - 48.549
TOTAL: 16.769.075
NSW TOTAL: 13.172.822(78.55%)
PS4 TOTAL: 3.596.253(22.45%)
Famitsu 2019 Top 50:
TOTAL: 17.460.965
NSW TOTAL: 12.741.147(72.96%)
PS4 TOTAL: 4.719.818(27.04%)
- Extremely likely we see something along the lines of 85% of Software Sales in the Top 50 on the Switch this year
- 2020 sales for Switch are already higher than in 2019 without the holidays
- Seems very unlikely that PS4/PS5 Totals in the Top 50 surpasses 4M
- We are looking at something along the lines of 17-20 million software sales on the Switch within the Top 50
- The minimum amount a game would need to sell to enter the Top 50 by the end of the year should exceed 100K
- A lot of games from the Bottom 10 on the Switch like Super Mario Odyssey, DQXI, Kirby, Pokemon Lets Go, Fitness Boxing, Hatsune Miku, Persona 5 Scramble have continued to sell outside of the Famitsu Top 30, so when the figures for the Top 100 are released I expect them all to have surpassed 100K for 2020
- This is one of the reasons I expect PS4/PS5 Total to go down by the end of the year because a lot of games will be pushed out of the Top 50 by these unaccounted sales and some very good 3rd Party support on the Switch until the end of the year
- Pikmin and Mario Kart Live Circuit are the two additional Nintendo titles that should enter the Top 50
- Momotaro(Konami) & Age of Calamity(Koei) should both have no issue surpassing 500K for the year
- Atelier 2(Koei), Derby Stallion(Game Addict), Family Trainer & Taiko(Bandai Namco), Fitness Boxing 2(Imagineer), SMT III(Atlus), Puyo Puyo 2(Sega) all have the potential to enter the Top 50
- Bravely Default 2 hasn't been pushed back to 2021 yet, so Square might still have a chance to be relevant this holiday season
- Expecting Human Fall Flat to surpass 100K physical as well(currently at 40K just outside of the Top 50)
- That's potentially 13 titles that could enter the Top 50 and push out some PS4 games
Famitsu 2019 Top 100
TOTAL: 22.352.020
NSW TOTAL:14.847.793(66.43%)
PS4 TOTAL: 7.181.200(32.13%)
- The Top 100 in 2019, had the PS4 performing better compared to the Top 50 due to a lot of 3rd Party games missing the Switch
- PS4 had 2.46 million sales from games 51-100 in the ranking, while the Switch had 2.1 million
- In 2019 the 50th best selling game Dragon Quest Builder 2 had 86K sales while the 100th Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon had 41K
- This year I expect the 50th best selling game over 100K with the 100th best at over 70K, which would be over 4.25 million for 51-100
- PS4/PS5 Software sales will likely be around 5 million
- 3DS in 2013 had its best year in terms of Software sales with 23.5 million the Top 100, Switch could Top this however it depends on Hardware, Animal Crossing Bundle & Ring Fit Availability and 3rd Party Performance in Q4
Prediction for 2020:
- TOTAL Top 100 >27 million
- NSW TOTAL Top 100: >22 million
- PS4 TOTAL Top 100: >5 million
- TOTAL Top 50 >22 million
- NSW TOTAL Top 50 >18 million
- PS4/PS5 TOTAL Top 50 >4 million
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Just wanna say man I really appreciate your insights, your posts in these threads are always fun and interesting to read, please keep it going. :)
