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Microsoft is much better positioned at the start of the 9th gen than the 8th. However, what's good for the XB brand (Gamepass) may not be great for XB console sales. Nevertheless, I expect that having both the most powerful and the most affordable next gen systems will help. Then there's the expected shorter length of this generation holding numbers down. There's the Bethesda ideal that will likely help the brand a lot in the long term, but probably won't do much of anything over the first few years of the generation.

With all of that in mind, I'm guessing 67 million units sold during the 9th gen.

Overall though, I expect MS to become the market leader in gaming sometime around the end of this gen to maybe 2030. They have such a massive headstart on Google and Amazon, and they have such massively deeper pockets than Sony and Nintendo that I see them as the most likely to come out on top as the distribution model(s) shift. Plus, they're still in the traditional gaming space, and likely improving their position there as well.