First, they need enough stock. 2021 should have equal numbers like this year. I expect a Switch XL coming next year. That should help to hold high hardware sales together with ongoing pandemic.
In 2022 we need a price cut. Switch Lite should then be 150 $. In 2023 and until end of life Switch Lite should be 99 $. In 2024 we should see a successor. If a successor already comes in 2023, it's unclear if Switch can reach 150M.