ACNH March 2020 NPD Physical should be 1.8-1.9M.
Nintendo confirmed US/EUR/JP digital share to be ~50% in both the FY19 Q4 Q&A (end of Pg. 1) and again in FY20 Q1 Results (end of Pg. 11). Since we know JP's physical AC sales and ship+digital at both of these times, it is easy to extrapolate that the upper-bound for JP's digital share is 30%. This puts the target number for US/EUR digital share at >60% (not knowing ROTW). Obviously Europe could be much higher than US or vice-versa, but easy assumption is to just plug 60% in.
Exp total MAR sales for ACNH in US would be 1800-1900K / 0.40 = 4,500 - 4,750K.
Exp total AUG sales for ACNH in US would be 179K / 0.40 = 448K.
Obviously this isn't exact, digital share fluctuates market-to-market, month-to-month.
Super rough guesstimate of ACNH monthly NPD sales
MAR 4,600K (2 weeks)
APR 1,800K (4 weeks)
MAY 1,400K (4 weeks)
JUN 1,100K (5 weeks)
JUL 650K (4 weeks)
AUG 450K (4 weeks)
Tried to do roughly 35% drops (weekly) after April and targeted Apr-Jun summing to ~90% of March launch.
