August NPD 2020: Switch 504k, PS4 197k, XBO 45k

[The_Liquid_Laser]

RolStoppable said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

I believe the word you are looking for is "imagination" instead of "fantasy".  (I am just saying this, because I am aware that English is not your first language.)  The overall point of your first two paragraphs is, "Looking at past history is important, but under unusual circumstances imagination is also very important."

I also agree with the point of your last paragraph.  The main problem with the conclusions of @Shadow1980 is that he is ignoring the magnitude to which the Switch is up YoY.  People who study a lot of data are actually the most susceptible to confirmation bias, because we all naturally tend to focus on the data which reinforces what we already believe.  It can happen to the best of us.  Normally the way to get around this is to make a prediction.  If your prediction is right, then your explanation becomes stronger.  If your prediction is wrong, then you are supposed to change your beliefs about what is happening.  Here is what happened with Shadow1980.

He predicted, "PS4, XB1 and NSW will all be down YoY in 2020."  Here is what the data (worldwide) is currently saying:

	2019 YTD	2020 YTD	growth
NSW	8,199,543	15,597,300	90.2%
PS4	8,243,566	7,222,247	-12.4%
XB1	2,063,413	2,166,685	5.0%

His prediction was right about PS4, wrong about XB1 and massively wrong about Switch.  COVID alone would be enough to explain why XB1 is up YoY, but that isn't sufficient to explain the Switch's massive growth.  He wants to explain everything away with COVID, because he wants to stick to all of his current assumptions about how the video game market works.  That is confirmation bias.  He also tends to only use US data only, and the US just happens to be where the effects of COVID are the largest and longest lasting.  That further fuels his confirmation bias.  NPD data isn't even that reliable anymore, because it all comes from leaks at this point, but he insists on using US data.

Now I do agree with Shadow1980 on one thing.  Animal Crossing alone doesn't explain the Switch's massive growth.  However, the idea that COVID alone expains the Switch's sales is an even worse explanation.  There is actually more going on here than COVID+Animal Crossing, but Shadow's explanation is that it is less going on.  He thinks it's COVID alone.

That kind of post isn't going to get us any further.

1. This is an NPD thread, so the focus will naturally be on US sales.

2. He doesn't think that it's COVID alone. The point of contention this month and in the past month has been how much of an effect COVID has had; neither side took the stance that it is a single factor alone that has resulted in this year's Switch sales.

3. You have to play dumb to call him wrong on the XB1 because it's a foregone conclusion that it will finish 2020 down year over year.

We have already been dealing with long posts from both sides, but if time's going to be wasted on sorting out strawman arguments, then we won't be getting anywhere.

Not sure why you are arguing with me.  We both think Shadow1980 is wrong, but you can't stand that I'm saying he is wrong in a different way, lol.  Anyway, as to your points...

1. True this is an NPD thread, but Shadow1980 mostly only makes these posts in NPD threads.  He seems to mostly ignore worldwide data or data from other regions.  Shadow1980 will sometimes make comments about how well Switch will sell worldwide, but his explanations always come back to US data.  It's a lot harder to come to these same conclusions when data from other regions is taken into account.

2.  His position is that the sales boost of the past two months is due to COVID plus stimulus checks, which themselves are a result of COVID.  He is in fact saying that the sales boost is due to COVID alone.

3.  You are nitpicking at a few words while missing my whole point.  XB1 sales are higher so far this year than what most people would have predicted on January 1, 2020.  This sales boost can be explained entiredly due to COVID.  However the Switch sales boost is much, much greater.  COVID alone does not explain why this sales boost is so much higher than XB1.