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Intrinsic said:

Yup... then again, the PS4 was stock limited all the way through to around April 2014. And I'm sure sony ha a way of gauging demand. What I really take from this is that from whenever they decided to up shipments o 15M, they must have also decided on their pricing. The only way they sell that many units are if their pricing is relatively aggressive.

That may be the case, but how low are they willing to go with the price if they originally expected to ship THAT many? Especially when the Series S is going for as low as $299? It may not mean much in Europe and Asia, where PlayStation dominates, (Well, if you don't count Nintendo anyways) but in North America, where Xbox can actually, seriously compete, that could really tip the scales in Microsoft's favor.

As for your first point: Yes, the PS4 stock was limited during the first 6 months of its lifespan, but I doubt that demand for the system in its early stages was as high as 11-15 million units shipped through March 2014. 11-15 million in it's first 4 1/2 months?!? That would be at level the Switch is selling now. There's no way demand was that high. And I seriously doubt that it's that high now, especially when the PS5 will be up against more competition than the PS4 was at the time. Microsoft, specifically the Xbox division, is in a FAR better place now than they were in late 2013, both from a PR and pre-launch standpoint. After that Xbox One reveal disaster, they have nowhere to go but up, which is the direction they appear to be headed. I fully expect Xbox Series sales to be notably higher than the Xbox One was during its first few months. Those extra sales have to come from somewhere. Plus, there's also the Switch, which is just on an absolute 'nother level. (Especially compared to the Wii + 3DS.)

I just think that Sony has more going against them this time around than they did during the PS4's pre-launch phase, where I think they're setting themselves up for disappointment if they expect actual demand to be as high as they're projecting.