Shadow1980 said:
curl-6 said:
Your mistake is to always assume that the future is dictated by past patterns, that everything has to have a historical precedent. Switch proves time and again that this isn't the case and that's why it keeps exceeding your estimates.
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First off, historical sales data is extremely important in sales discussion. It allows us to see what does and doesn't affect sales and how they affect sales, such as demonstrating that price cuts often cause rises in hardware, for example. So don't be dismissive of its importance. While no two systems have the same-shaped sales curves and therefore they aren't wholly "dictated by past patterns," that doesn't mean that we can't determine what does and does not have an affect on hardware sales, and what those effects typically are.
Going back to the Switch, others are assuming something that has literally never happened before when another explanation already exists, one that is far more plausible and is something the data actually suggests is true. When faced with two potential answers to the "What's the primary cause of the increase in Switch sales?" question, I choose the more plausible of the two. AC just happened to launch at the same time a massive pandemic hit, and so we have to look at the data in a broader context to see which factor was the primary or sole factor.
These are the facts as we know them:
- NPD data consistently shows that with major system-selling software, the vast majority of people who bought the system just for that game did so within the first month or two. There is a spike in HW sales growth in the first month when sales of the game are at their highest, then a drop in HW sales the next month, and then sales return to something resembling the previous baseline (if it's released early enough in the year to attain a baseline prior to the holidays.
- As has been reported on by multiple media outlets, people started to spend more on at-home entertainment after the start of the pandemic-induced quarantines. This increased spending on at-home entertainment obviously includes video games.
- NPD data consistently shows that when consumers are given substantial enough windfalls that are (mostly) across the board, it results in increased spending on console hardware. This is usually the case in February and, to a lesser extent, March because of tax refunds.
- There is sufficient evidence that, beginning in April, there were stimulus-induced increases in spending on game consoles, which is consistent with the previous two points. Namely, NPD data shows a 177% YoY increase in PS4 sales and a 210% YoY increase in XBO sales in April along with the 256% increase in Switch sales. Furthermore, weekly average PS4 & XBO sales in April increased 62.6% and 49%, respectively, from March. Overall, it was the largest April to date for the PS4 & XBO, the second-largest non-holiday month for the PS4 to date (after Sept. 2014), and tied for the largest non-holiday month to date for the XBO. It was also the best April ever by for combined same-gen PlayStation + Xbox sales with 740k units sold, despite coming near the end of the generation where sales had been down considerably from their peak (the previous record holder was April 2011, where the PS3 & 360 sold a combined 501k), and in terms of weekly average sales was the fourth-largest non-holiday month for combined same-gen PS+Xbox sales in the past decade, bested only by Feb. 2010, Feb. 2011, & Feb. 2012.
- NPD data also shows an across-the-board pre-stimulus acceleration in sales. The PS4 & XBO were both up about 25% YoY in March, but even more notable is how much March was up from February. March is almost always down from February, at least in terms of weekly averages (it is a 5-week sales period), but this year we saw anomalously high growth from February. The XBO was up 70% and the PS4 was up 80%. The Switch was up 140%, substantially higher than either the PS4 or XBO, so, like the YoY increases, that suggests that Animal Crossing was likely doing much if not most of the work in March, but that a general increase in spending on consoles at the start of quarantine was a significant factor. The only other times we saw March's weekly average being substantially up from February's was the Wii in 2008, the 360 in 2006, and the PS2 in 2001. With the Wii, that was most likely because of SSB Brawl, while with the 360 & PS2 that was almost certainly due to both systems finally getting restocks after being severely supply-constrained in their first few months.
The only thing "unprecedented" this year is the pandemic and the resultant stimulus, the largest such stimulus to date ($1200 at minimum, vs. $300 for the previous stimulus checks we got in the 00s). But we do know that putting a big check in people's pockets gets them to spend more, especially on big-ticket items like game consoles, something that's going to be in increased demand because away-from-home options have been extremely limited (no movie theaters, amusement parks, etc.). It's something we have real proof for.
If you believe that the surplus in Switch sales for the April-July period is mostly due to people who wanted one to play AC and not due to the general COVID-19-/stimulus-induced increase in spending on at-home entertainment, and/or that AC (or even the Switch in general) is setting an entirely new precedent all by itself, and/or a single game can keep producing significant YoY increases in hardware sales five months after its release, then the burden of proof is on you to prove those things. I've provided my arguments and my data, and until I'm provided with some real counter-arguments based not on assertions but on actual data (figures, surveys... something... and I've already shown that Amazon rankings can be ruled out) this is the last time I will contribute to this conversation. I've already put too much time into arguing my points as it is.
I rest my case.
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