Info to know... Before getting with the subject!
Top 5 FY (Hardware)
DS09 [31.18mil]
DS08 [30.31mil]
DS10 [27.11mil]
Wii09 [25.95mil]
DS07 [23.56mil]
Notice anything??.... Bonus!!! Peak this Gen...
NSW20 (21.03mil)
PS4:18 (20.00mil)
I’ll be focusing on only Wii peak year and the 2 DS years that did 30mil+ for this topic.... Let’s A Go!!!
First off I know what your going to say..... SUPPP:pPPPPPPLLLLYYYY!!!! Yes I know this so I’ll address this first, we heard of production from 22mil earlier (10% increase) then again with 25mil. The first thing that bothers me with this figure is the fact that 5.68mil NSW were shipped in Q1 of this FY. That’s a pretty high number and though Q2 in the west seem to be smaller so far in comparison to Q1 this year (due to no stock especially in the US) japan is rising by quite a lot. More on that in a bit...
If NSW were to ship the same units every quarter for Q2-Q4 including its holiday Quarter it would be close to 23mil. Even with Q2/Q4 being down compare to Q1 there is the fact that holiday tend to be over 8mil and closer to 10mil.
I believe NSW will have a slightly down Q2 but beating its peak of 4.80mil last year (Lite launch) and since demand and no stock on store shelves I think we will see a huge boost to holiday and it’ll surpass even the monstrous DS holiday quarters. And then for Q4 Nintendo will have a spill over effect and Nintendo will catch up to demand but will need to fill in the inventory WW (especially Japan/US)
Next up NSW Q1 is 5.68mil, if you were to put every Quarter last year (Nsw FY20) and match it this year NSW will end up at 24.5mil. I think we all believe NSW can go up further than all that (or should I say no1??)
Now for the top Quarters for DS each!!! (30mil years)
DS09 Q2 6.79mil / Q3 11.89mil / Q4 5.56mil
DS08 Q2 6.37mil / Q3 11.14mil / Q4 4.68mil
NSW 2020 had Q3 with a whopping 10.41mil which isn’t far off especially DS08.
My prediction comparing it to everything said so far!!!!!
- Q1 5.68mil (This is fact, NeXt —> )
-Q2 5.50mil
Yes down QoQ and yes nowhere near DS top Q2 but... Japan making up for this one, I think this quarter japan will have the highest share since NSW cane out. WW it’s never been over 30%, I think it’ll be up from last quarter 1.15mil till this quarter 1.75mil-1.80mil). Even with 1/3rd that’s 5.25mil-5.40mil shipped and demand will not be done yet!!!
-Q3 13.50mil
Go ahead, and mocked me for this one! This is the WTF one but let’s go hard on this one. Nintendo is stocking up, a bunch of Lites will come. OG model is healthy at this time. And it’ll be up from NSW peak Q3 and surpass both Monster years of DS. They will try to store up shelves as much as possible and demand will almost be caught up!!
-Q4 5.32mil
To end it exactly at 30mil hoping to be slightly under with this prediction but here we are. The spill over year which Nintendo will have a strong software Q4 (my guess) and will finally catch up to demand with overshipping to retailers!!!!
That’s a quick write up on my part, Japan will have a huge Q3 as well as Q4. Post your thoughts whether you agree or disagree!!!
Looking forward to your comments!!
