The PS5 was going to win regardless....
Hot take aside... Price is key.
$399 PS5 DE
And this gen is over before it even began.
$399 XSX/PS5 DE
And Sony is in trouble. But this is impossible. Well...more like highly unlikely.
The thing about the XSS, is that it validates the value of a $100 more expensive PS5. I mean, with $100 more you get a console that is about 2.5xmore powerful. And then it discredits the XSX/PS5 disc version compared to that $399 digital PS5. "why should you spend $100 more for a disc drive or 1.17x more power?"
But if the XSS is $199? Then now that's a totally different matter.
I think SNY doesn't win as big as you suggest in the first scenario, since it seems the majority have been selecting PS5 over DE. With a $299 XBSS, assuming it has an optical drive, I think consumers will see a $499 PS5 and XBSX more so as the next step. That's a pretty big gap, and should lead to even higher XBSS sales.
In the second scenario, it should be a much closer race. Why buy XBSS for $299, when you could have XBSX for just $100 more? Way more performance and no compromises with the optical drive. Though how many will think why buy XBSX, when you could have PS5 for just $100 more? No that many I'd guess, based on the paper specs and marketing.