I have given you the reasonable on how much more sales you would need to justify the cut in price, and that count showed that it would be hard.
Where? Was it in another thread? Can't find it here.
Anyway, I doubt there is a hard cold count you go do to make it reasonable for me.
PS+ and PSN makes so much more money for them than just hardware profit, which is never the point of their consoles anyway.
More people playing on PS4 mean more subscribers, games sold and people to move their base from PS4 to PS5 when they can.
Another concern could be Lockhart. If SNY had a good idea it's been in the works and will likely launch, if it's cheap enough, then that could pose a bit of a problem for a PS4 SS. Even if SNY went with $100 drop to $199, if Lockhart lands at $299, some are going to have second thoughts about simply grabbing up a last gen PS4 SS.
Now for some, an extra $100 over a $199 PS4 will simply be seen as too much, since PS4 at $299 was already too much for them. However, since PS4 is also nearing the end portion of it's life span, Lockhart would be brand new and next gen capable, so some are definitely going to think about waiting and saving up for it instead.
There are more recent rumors that Lockhart is actually a little weaker than anticipated, 1080p only, no 1440p, and could cost as low as $199 with a subsidy, assuming MS puts the subsidy emphasis heavily on Lockhart and not XBSX. Even if Lockhart was $249 or $299, this may be seen as a losing battle and a lost cause for SNY, so forget about PS4 SS and focus on PS5 subsidies.
Then there's the whole Game Pass, Netflix style push for MS, which would go great with a cheap Lockhart. Sure it's more money yet, but it's spread out in smaller amounts over years, assuming you keep paying for the service to play over time.