Global Hardware June 28 to July 4 - Switch Sells Over 300,000 Units

[The_Liquid_Laser]

curl-6 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

This is basically the halfway point of the calander year, and we know that systems always sell significantly more in the 2nd half especially Nintendo systems.  That means that if we double the current number of Switch sales we get 21m and that is unreasonably low.  They definitely are going to sell several million above 21m.  On the other hand Switch sales are up 74% YoY and if they continue this trend then annual sales will be 34m and that is unreasonbly high.

What is more reasonable is to assume about half of this incredible growth is a temporary boost and the other half is from sustained momentum.  Annual sales of 28m would put Switch up 32% for the second half of the year.  However, I am somewhat skeptical Nintendo can manufacture enough to keep up with this kind of demand.  It is very likely that Switch will be in short supply for the rest of the year.  Even if they restock in the next month or so, they will be in short supply again once the holidays hit.

Total sales for Switch this year will largely be based on the amount Nintendo can supply rather than market demand.

The reportedly ordered 10% more Switch units for this FY over last, in which they shipped just over 21 million, which would mean 23-24 million Switches manufactured/shipped for this FY.

Of course, it remains to be seen if they can keep demand this high, as we don't know what major new games (if any) they have for the second half of the year. 

A 10% increase is not nearly enough.  Again, some simple math shows that if the second half matches the first half then that is 21m for the calendar year.  But the second half is always significantly more than the first half.  They should be planning more for the 26m - 30m range.  However, I don't think they are going to be able to manufacture that much.  It's more likely that Switches will be in short supply for most of the year, including the holidays.