Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

[Bofferbrauer2]

Jaicee said:

Here's something mildly interesting that is presidential: a swath of anti-Trump Republicans are attempting to rally Republican voters to support Joe Biden in this election. It's not too shocking really, as anti-Trump Republicans have always been a small phenom that has existed since the 2016 nominating contest, but in 2016 they didn't endorse a candidate. This time around, it looks like they are. The article points to some evidence that such efforts could make a difference at the margins. For example:

"According to recent New York Times/Siena College polling, 6% of voters in six crucial battleground states who backed Trump in 2016 say there's "not really any chance" they'll back him again this November. Another 2% say they don't support Trump, but they're not sure if they'll vote for his reelection."

It elaborates later on the specific demography that's being primarily argeted by these groups:

"There's a decent chunk of those white college-educated voters who support [GOP] policies, they support the tax cuts, but you know, they wouldn't be crazy about President Trump demanding an apology from Bubba Wallace this week," said McHenry, referring to the Black NASCAR driver Trump singled out on Twitter.

Not once in the last 50 years have college-educated white Americans voted to elect a Democrat president. Yet in the 2017 off-year elections, the 2018 midterm elections, and the 2019 off-year elections, this group voted for Democrats overall. I think this new trend could very well persist into this fall's presidential election specifically because it's being driven by Trump. Every effort to aid this trajectory, including by more moderate Republicans, is welcome as far as I'm concerned!

I've observed Trump to be losing support among all demographic groups over time except for white working class men. That is the only group in this country that's still just as enthused for him today as four years ago. The current moving average of polls has Biden leading by 8.8 percentage points overall.

I do expect that if the Republican party embraces Trumpism in the future even if Donald won't be reelected, then a number of Republican politicians of all levels will switch to either Democrats or Libertarian party out of spite or disgust. A couple already did, but if the trend of the party moving further and further to the right continues, I expect this to accelerate.