Game application sizes are getting bigger and bigger, digital sales are rising, so yeah. I say PS5, Xbox Series X and Switch 2 (or whatever it's called, and it's debatable whether it will be 9th or 10th gen) will be the last of physical video games.
Obscure video game platforms both upcoming and in the past have pretty much already ditched physical media. Ouya was digital only, Atari VCS will be digital only, Intellivsion Amico will only have limited physical games. And there's also a few all-digital versions of mainstream video game platforms.
If PS6 and Xbox 5 (whatever) were going to release in 2025, I'd say there's a modest chance of physical games continuing. But since they probably won't release until 2026 or 2027, that's just more time for digital games to dominate.
If physical games still came with cool manuals and had the entire game (or vast majority of it) on the disc, I'd mourn their loss more. But the line between physical and digital is blurring, and it will come to a head.
Final thought. I could see the PS6, Xbox 5, and Switch 3 still having some games in physical boxes with a download code inside (so PC and some Switch games). But discs and cartridges will be dead by then for video games.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)
PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million
PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima