Of course the safe bet is on Sony. The company that is winning will most likely to continue winning.
That being said, I think it really depends on how much Microsoft is willing to take a hit...
I think at this point the Series X is a vehicle for Gamepass. At some point in the relatively near future (within 10 years I think), gaming will predominately be a Netflix like service. Microsoft really wants to be that service, and I think they may be willing to take a huge loss on the Series X hardware to make that happen. If they're willing to significantly undercut Sony and lose a few billion dollars, they may be able to significantly shift the market, at least to where it was last gen.