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No idea actually. But before the launch we already saw videos from Zelda BotW and all journalist were extremely positive about it. And me and a lot of people with them.
So after the wii u debacle, where every gamer knew (after seeing the first commercial) that it would flop, I don't think there were a lot of people that thought the Switch would be a disaster. So, I would say 60 million would have been my guess, so I voted 60.-80.