Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Mummelmann]

Trumpstyle said:

Mummelmann said:

https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/fler-doda-i-covid-19-doljs-i-statistiken/

From March 23rd and up to May 3rd, approx. 1000 unaccounted for deaths beyond regular mortality rates, it's not likely that all 1000 are directly linked to Covid-19 but a significant portion would be (even only half would mean a margin of error well beyond 10%). One of the most significant statistical trends though is the very slow downward slope of Swedish deaths per capita compared to the rest of Europe, and indeed most of the world. And even countries that simply don't do anything at all (Brazil, for instance) have lower deaths per capita in the past few weeks total.

As with poor economic growth, where Sweden celebrated when they corrected analysts statistics on OECD stats, and it turned out they were only the third-worst in all of OECD in GDP  growth per capita and not the worst, they seem to be falling back on the fact that 2-3 tiny states with an immensely different population per square kilometer and a few other countries whose famous dallying cost tens of thousands of lives are still a little bit worse in total figures. These disaster-struck regions have now reduced their daily fatalities enormously, going from north of 1000 per day and down to mere double digits or even less, while Swedish numbers are still at around 1/3 of peak numbers or above, many weeks after said peak. Only in Sweden would this be considered a success or signs or proper progress. To make matters worse, regions outside Stockholm seem to be having an increase. Meanwhile, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, and Finland's combined weekly deaths are well below that of a single day in Sweden.

Even smug journalists who were brandishing the Swedish genius and dubbing Europe alarmist victims of mass hysteria have now turned one after one and more and more chronicles are focusing on the obvious faults and flaws in the strategy as well as the incredibly anemic leadership throughout the pandemic.

As for excess death, there's appears to be 2 different numbers coming from our government, one from SCB and the other one from Folkhälsomyndigheten. My wikipedia source is from SCB, I'm not sure how they manage to get different numbers.

As for GDP growth, everything is just forecasts atm. Our own government estimate -4-10% gdp but most likely land in the middle and a budget deficit of -5-6%. I saw news that our big bank Nordea expect -6% gdp this year and +5% next year. This are justs forecasts and we won't be able to compare to different countries intill next year.

You seems to be a downer, you should w8 atleast 1 year before being a downer on our strat.

Edit: Another swede haft to confirm this, but from what I gathered, SCB just compares excess death to last year while folkhälsomyndigheten are doing an estimate of excess deaths, that's why they get different numbers.

There are indeed two figures, as you say, but both show excess and statistical anomalies.

My GDP comment was regarding a long-term economic trend, Sweden has chosen to focus on celebrating an increase in total GDP, but their GDP per capita has shown very poor growth compared to EU and OECD standards. This was a trend long before the pandemic and is likely an effect of the slow erosion of taxpayer base and overall slow growth in productivity (where Scandinavia has been king for a long time) due to a large amount of the workforce working in the service industry and a significant portion working parttime in other jobs which do not specifically generate direct wealth or produce/products (such as healthcare and caring for the elderly, for instance) paired with an absurdly large administrative force for its population and needs. Its goal of having the lowest unemployment rates in the EU have also gone to blazes.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.04630

The above study should be read by every Swede who uses the "look at the longterm effects on the economy" or "lockdowns are too costly", as it more or less nullifies this argument. Yes, it's only one, but more are likely to show up in the wake of it, and it's extra interesting from a Scandinavian viewpoint since it compares two very similar economies and populations (a hint; is suggest that lockdown measures aren't really the thing that stalls the economy, and it appears as if not locking down has adverse effects on the elderly population).

Some also mention the adverse health effects of lockdowns, with suicide being a sudden and overhanging danger for some reason.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/02/the-link-between-unemployment-and-suicide/

There are likely links between longterm unemployment and suicide, but the total figures are quite small. The financial crisis in 2008 seems to have yielded an approx. 12% increase in suicides over unemployment-related trouble and depression. Even if we see a much larger increase, twice that increase, due to the Corona crisis, the number of extra suicides in Sweden with its 0.13% of the world's total population would likely amount to somewhere between 15-20. Far from anything to be considered for a pandemic strategy. As for unemployment in and on itself; Sweden is set to basically double their unemployment rate, which is pretty much the same as Norway's expectations, despite the allegedly insane and costly lockdown. The healthcare and longterm adverse effects of extra pressure on the system can't be applied either, as lockdown is a specific measure to decrease the toll a pandemic takes on the healthcare system, whereas a nation with more infected will have more patients in the ICU at all times and for a much longer period. As it stands today, for instance, the total number of patients in the ICU in all of Norway is significantly lower than a regular Swedish daily death toll, which are telling numbers for anyone.

The death toll speaks for itself. I'm not really being a downer, so much as Swedes are being remarkably chipper and unaffected by the severity of the situation. I think my main issue with the Swedish strategy (or, rather, lack thereof) is two-fold, the first is that it seemingly has zero advantages long or short-term and the second is how incredibly chaotic and flip-flopping the communication between state and population as well as government and regions and interest organizations has been. It's a political disaster from where I'm sitting, and as per usual, Sweden is more concerned with how they're perceived by others than with solving the actual issues. "Sverigebilden" must be among the highest trending words in the media here.

But hey! I want this to go well for everyone, I'm going home to my family in August, at this rate it would appear that I will either not be allowed into the country at all, or I'll have to spend my entire vacation in quarantine (and miss my dad's 60th birthday party) or face a fine of about 2000$.

Last edited by Mummelmann - on 31 May 2020