PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; WEEK FIFTY-THREE!! GAME! SET! MATCH!

[kenjab]

javi741 said:
The Switch sales for 2020 are insane, Switch sales for 2020 are up 80% YoY which is nearly DOUBLE 2019 sales! If the Switch were to keep this 80% YoY growth for the rest of the year it would go on to sell 35Million in 2020 ALONE! Which has never been done by a video game system before in history with the closest one being the DS, which had 2 years of selling 30Million Consoles, in terms of Home consoles, the closest one was the Wii selling 26M in 1 year. The Switch having a chance to blow past these numbers selling 35M in one year is mind-blowing and would put it at not only one of the fastest selling video game systems of all time, but one of the fastest selling products in world history period.

However, it's likely foolish to think that the Switch will keep this YoY growth for the rest of 2020 especially since it's going to be difficult to top 2019's Holiday season since we saw the release of Pokemon which is a huge game. Plus it's uncertain whether this lock-down situation will continue til the end of the year since that's been a huge reason why Switch sales have been way up this year, plus shortages may be an issue, a lot of uncertainties make it difficult to believe this 80% growth YoY will continue through 2020.

However, even a more realistic amount like sales up 40-50% YoY would put the Switch between 27-29M for 2020, which is also insane and never been done by a Home Console.

If we were to take Switch sales YoY before the COVID-19 Shortages, lockdown, and Animal Crossing release, which was 23% YoY growth before all this happened, Switch sales would be at 24M for the year, which is also amazing despite being a conservative YoY growth rn.

So I think it's safe to say MINIMUM the Switch will sell 24M in 2020 and the Max is 35M, I expect the Switch to sell an insane 27M for the year, which would put the Switch at 75M sold by the end of 2020 with shipments likely at 78M, surpassing the 3DS while not even being 4 Years old yet.

What do you guys think?

I think you're being a bit too optimistic.  One note is that, while sales have been great for the past couple of months, there are definitely shortages happening, and while the pandemic is increasing demand, it will also not allow Nintendo to make significantly more units to meet that demand.  Keep in mind that Nintendo is forecasting to produce 19M Switches this fiscal year.  In order to produce enough Switches to sell even 24M this year it would require a massive increase in production that is likely not possible any time soon.

Another thing to note is that you have to factor in that at this time last year, the Switch Lite didn't exist.  While the Lite didn't sell quite as well as some may have predicted, it is undoubtedly increasing sales since its release.  Once we get to September and the anniversary of the launch of the Lite, the weeks that the Switch is up YoY will be much less common.