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SMO is definitely selling better than I thought it would.  In early 2018 I thought the cap was 16m.  

Looks like it's going to be close getting to 20m, and it may depend on what Nintendo does at this point.  Another 3D Mario game (or compilation) might cut it's legs even more.  On the other hand if it gets bundled again or put as a Nintendo selects, then it could go well past 20m.  It will be interesting to see how it turns out.