Paper Mario will sell more, I don't doubt it for a second. Ghost will sell well, over 7 mil I would wager. However 1st party IPs have been breaking records on Switch, and sales for most Nintendo software seem to exceed expectations.
A few things to note here.
1. Regardless of how the other titles sold due to being niche, PM is the next/only NEW 1st party title with a release date. PM has the spotlight here, and sales will reflect that.
2. Switch owners do not know what to expect after PM. There will likely be more shadow drop announcements like this one as time goes on, but for now this would be the only NEW 1st party game not in limbo so the ever expanding Switch install base will feel more inclined to check it out. The last game in this situation...ACNH. Not to say that is the only reason ACNH blew up the way it did...I am just pointing out this particular similarly of the situation.
3. It is Mario. Despite not being a traditional platformer, it is just that much more recognized overall.
Now of course this is based on the assumption that the game does not suck and completely flop based on word of mouth. But I feel confident that this game will do well and end up on top here.
Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984
Animal Crossing NH Dream Address: DA-1078-9916-3261
