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Soundwave on 08 May 2020
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Louie said:
Soundwave said:

Being supported and sold at retail into 2026/2027 is the the definition of a longer product cycle. You saying "well I don't think that counts because 600k a year isn't enough" is irrelevant, the 3DS is still here and now and still even getting new games.

Switch 2 releases in 2023 I think most likely, the OG Switch will get 2 years software support at least past that, which brings you to 2025. It will still then continue to get new games probably even 1-2 years after that and stocked like the 3DS is now. 

That is a very, very long product cycle. A system is not "replaced" just because the successor console comes out, the PS2 sold like 50 million units after the PS3 came out, if Switch is the be all end all for sales, then it should be able to do the same or at least continue selling reasonably high numbers. 

A $350 Switch 2 is going to be selling to people who already bought a Switch like 5-6 years prior at that point, its not going to be taking sales away from a $149.99 Switch Lite. 

This is not about my thoughts, it's about the fact that Nintendo clearly means it will take a long time for Switch 2 to be released. But I guess we agree to disagree on this point.

But again, no matter how you define the product lifecycle, Nintendo says the Switch will have a longer life than the 3DS. The 3DS is now 9+ years old. So the Switch will have at least a 10 year lifecycle if we count last year's 600k 3DS as "alive". 

And (see the edit in my last post) you are one of the people arguing Nintendo consoles don't sell well for a very long time. Yet, at the same time, you think the Switch will get software support until 2027 and have a 10+ year lifecycle? I mean... ok, I guess? 

Nintendo has never said anything about when a successor can or can't come out. 

I think the 3DS is basically the test run for how they plan to handle the Switch. It will get its 10 year cycle too, if it's a strong enough product then it shouldn't have a problem selling a lot more than 600k a year. 

Nintendo consoles do historically have significant drop-offs in the second half of their product cycles. That doesn't mean you can't sell them for a long period of time though, you just have to account for that being what it is. 

Even in this case there are large disparities here like how exactly is a $350 Switch 2 replacing a Switch Lite for example? The current Switch isn't even functionally replaced until there is a Switch 2 Lite model that is $250 or less. 

Until there is an affordable pocket version of the Switch 2, it cannot even functionally replace the Switch 1, and a Switch 2 Lite (5nm most likely) likely isn't not happening before 2025 period.

The 3DS basically replaced the DS for all intents and purposes as Nintendo cut the price to $169.99, it could basically do all the same things a DS could by then and both fit into a pocket easily with a cheap price, but Switch 2 won't be able to do the same for Switch until it gets a proper Lite version. 

The issue of the Lite model likely means Switch-Switch 2 can co-exist longer than the DS-3DS or Wii-Wii U or GBA-DS could. They legitimately can serve different market purposes for quite a while longer. You guys are not accounting for this difference and just assuming a Switch-Switch 2 transition is the same as like a DS-3DS transition ... it won't be. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 08 May 2020