Just a few points; 3. We don't know when Switch will peak and decline but we do know all of the biggest software we can foresee has now hit the platform (please remind me if there's a title im missing). Its ultimately an unknown, may they try another labo/Ring Fit type game and it explodes but we cannot ignore that the Wii's peak came with it mega software like Wii Sports Resort (also a new peripheral), Wii Fit (Also a new peripheral), New Super Mario Bros Wii. 4. Hypothetically If 2020 is the peak when then should we expect to see a Switch 2? 5. I'm not at all against a redesign of a Switch, I'm against a Switch Pro. In fact I heavily champion a cheap Switch TV. |
1. In hindsight this is probably what Nintendo should have done with how things turned out in the end. However, looking at it from a 2009-2011 standpoint, it would have been better for Nintendo to release more quality titles for the platform. The Wii's decline (software-wise) began in late 2008 when both Animal Crossing: City Folk and Wii Music, Nintendo's two big holiday games, underperformed. Animal Crossing is more suited to handheld play and Wii Music was the first sign of Nintendo not understanding its own strategy. The Wii was a disruptive product, a "crappy product for crappy customers". With Wii Music Nintendo showed that they didn't actually understand their new customer base. They merely thought of them as "the casualz" and like the rest of the industry thought these customers would basically buy anything as long as it was easy to pick up and play. The success of New Super Mario Bros and Wii Sports Resort in late 2009 show that the Wii had the potential to have a longer Maturity phase, but after that Nintendo didn't release much system selling software anymore.
2. The product lifecycle theory actually accounts for this. Basically, Switch 2 could be released at the end of the Switches Saturation phase, but according to the theory the original Switch can still sell for another year or two, even if its sales are declining. I agree that Nintendo has to think of the next 5 years, but that's exactly what this theory is used for in practise: to determine when to make the transition to the successor product while maximizing profits.
3. I can think of Super Mario Bros. Switch, Switch Sports and (believe it or not) Nintendogs. Nintendogs on 3DS didn't "bomb" (it didn't actually bomb: It sold 4.6 million units according to VGChartz) because people had moved on from the series but because it was a mass market game released as a launch title for a console that was aimed at hardcore gamers (3D and better graphics were Nintendo's selling points for the 3DS at launch).
4. Well, that's hard to answer. It depends on how Nintendo handles the Switch software-wise. Personally, I don't expect them to release software like the big games mentioned in point 3, because Nintendo's developers are stubborn and want to develop whatever fits their boat. In that case, late 2023 would probably be the best time to release the Switch 2. I don't expect them to play their cards right after what happened between 2009 and 2016, but people like RolStoppable have a more positive outlook - in which case the ideal time would probably be late 2024, as Nintendo could push the Switch's growth Phase into 2021. Of course, if Nintendo botches every single big software release, the Switch might actually crash and burn (relative to its success), making a late 2022 release somewhat possible. But that really is the absolute worst case scenario and I don't see that happening personally, unless Nintendo truly goes nuts. And with Furukawa as CEO that's unlikely.
5. I think it's possible that Nintendo will release such a product. However, that would ideally be released at a later point in the product lifecycle, during the Saturation phase of the product. Think of the Wii Mini, the cheap variants of the NES and SNES, the New 2DS XL which was cheaper than the New 3DS or the cheap version of the PSP (PSP e-1000 was its name, I think) or the PS3 super-slim. The product lifecycle theory actually accounts for such cheaper revisions during that Phase. A "New Switch" would be more fitting to prolong the Maturity phase of the product, as Nintendo has done that multiple times in the past and they have experience with it.
And as a general note: This is Nintendo we're talking about. They're the company that followed up the Wii with the Wii U and honestly thought people would transition from the most easy to learn controller to the console with the most complicated und bulky controller of all times. They're also the company that didn't learn from the Virtual Boy and made stereoscopic 3D the main feature of the 3DS. With Nintendo, many things happen that don't make much sense. So I'm not saying a Switch 2 in late 2022 is impossible, just that it doesn't seem like a good idea.
Last edited by Louie - on 06 May 2020
