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People stating that the games are the most important factor; yeah that's pretty obvious. I would say the price is a close second in terms of importance; if not just as important, at least in the first year or two of a consoles life cycle. Especially since the vast majority of games during that first year or two are going to be cross-gen games.

Anyway, like the title of this thread states, this is just for early predictions. As more info comes out about what games are launching with the consoles, price, etc... more informed predictions can be made.