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curl-6 on 28 March 2020
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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Even factoring in online retailers, I just can't see a system peaking in the year of the worst pandemic in over a century.

Not to mention they have yet to prove they have any more major, system-selling games for the rest of the year.

The pandemic is not something to worry about when it comes to video game sales. Apparently Australia is less affected by corona than other relevant video game markets, so I suppose it's possible that you have the wrong idea of what the shutdown/hibernation of the economy in those other places really means.

Console sales are shifting from brick and mortar retailers to online stores, so do physical game sales. Games are also available in digital format, so software is even easier to purchase than hardware. The purchase options are not an issue.

While there is a notable number of people who have lost their jobs due to consequences of the corona spread, the governments in North America and Europe are offering plenty of support to help the vast majority of people through the crisis. For example, in central Europe employees can see their work hours reduced to 10% of what they normally do, yet still receive a good 80% of their usual wage. This means a lot of additional free time at home while the disposable income remains; less work hours also mean less money spent on food. For the most part, any damage you could think of that the pandemic can do to video game sales is offset by a measure that governments employ, so things balance out.

Also, the strict measures to contain corona won't last forever because the economical needs have to be fulfilled. The current shutdown will definitely not last beyond spring and the shutdown is also happening during a period of the year that isn't exactly strong for video game sales. Or in other words, any damage you can imagine to occur will be made up for in the latter half of the year when life has returned to normal.

What speaks the most against Switch peaking in 2020 is that 2021 can be even better, so 2020 would merely be the best year yet.

Surely the shuttering of brick and mortar outlets in many countries has to have some effect, plus the likelihood of fewer sales-driving software releases due to COVID-19 hitting developers. 

I'm also not too sure if life will have "returned to normal" by the latter half of the year; apparently a vaccine for coronavirus could be 12-18 months away from reaching the public, and until then restrictions will be necessary to limit its spread.