SvennoJ said:
Teeqoz said:
I did say these numbers will rise, and that includes the CFR and the hospitalization rate. However the current numbers are already enough to say that a 15% mortality rate is completely ridiculous, even as a worst case scenario, which was what I was responding to. However the progression of cases turning more serious might just as well be countered by undiagnosed cases, as we certainly have plenty of them in Norway in too.
As for the rest you are saying, everyone won't be infected at the same time, and everyone won't require hospitalization at the same time. Even if they would, it's not like every single person that would be hospitalized will die if they aren't. People are hospitalized to keep them under observation in case their condition worsens, and they might be treated with antiobiotics to prevent opportunistic bacterial infections, but everyone hospitalized case won't automatically turn critical without hospital care.
There are so many ludicrous assumptions to get to an 8% mortality rate that it's a scenario that's not worth thinking about - not in relation to the Covid19 pandemic anyway.
China has done far fewer tests per capita than Norway. South Korea is another country that has a good dataset, and which seem to have gotten some control of the epidemic. They currently have a ~1.3% Case Fatality Rate, and of cases that had an outcome, 3.31% died, though that number is dropping (just 4 days ago it was 4%. Recoveries take more time than fatalities).
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I don't assume that everyone that needs to be hospitalized will die without hospitalization, but I also doubt that only 8% need hospital care.
Germany and Italy are two opposites. In Germany the virus was mostly imported by younger / fitter people returning from ski vaction where it mostly stayed. While in Italy it circulated around and got a grip on the older population because of the way families live together.
South Korea was different again, a super spreader causing an early spike which was contained. A good scare that got things under control before it could spread undetected.
Anyway I calculated this through before
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
0 to 9 -> 3.8 million people, 70% infected 2.66 million, 2.6K in the hospital, 53 in ICU (50 dead)
10 to 19 -> 3.7 million people, 70% infected 2.59 million, 7.8K in the hospital, 388 in ICU (155 dead)
20 to 29 -> 4.4 million people, 70% infected 3.08 million, 37K in the hospital, 1800 in ICU (924 dead)
30 to 39 -> 4.6 million people, 70% infected 3.22 million, 103K in the hospital, 5150 in ICU (2570 dead)
40 to 49 -> 4.4 million people, 70% infected 3.08 million, 151K in the hospital, 9500 in ICU (4620 dead)
50 to 59 -> 4.7 million people, 70% infected 3.29 million, 336K in the hospital, 40940 in ICU (19714 dead)
60 to 69 -> 3.4 million people, 70% infected 2.38 million, 395K in the hospital, 108250 in ICU (52360 dead)
70 to 79 -> 2.8 million people, 70% infected 1.96 million, 476K in hospital, 206K in ICU (100K dead)
88 to 99 -> 1.5 million people, 70% infected 1.05 million, 287K in hospital, 203K in ICU (98K dead)
Now not all will be in the hospital at the same time, but with long recovery times the demand on the hospital system will be far greater than the 4,000 ICU beds in the UK.
A lot depends on the age demographics of a country. The UK would have no problem if they put everyone over 35 out of the way ;) (Apart from a couple thousand deaths and a lot of sick people :/)
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