Teeqoz said:
crissindahouse said:
You could also just use numbers from single regions of countries like Italy because you can't just say Norway is a better representation as Italy because of a higher percentage of testing when different regions test differently.
Italy tested over 80k people in the Lombardy which has 10m people. Of those 80k tested, you have around 4,5k deaths and like 33k positive cases.
Lombardy has around the same amount of tests and you have like a 30x higher death rate as Norway has.
Italy might be a very negative scenario but Norway is at least right now a very positive one. But the death rate will increase there as well like it also did everywhere else. That's sadly the truth like we also see in countries like Germany now (which does still look good compared to many others)
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Lombardy has half the test coverage of Norway, per capita. About 6% of the tests that are performed in Norway test positive for the virus. If 50% of the tests performed in Lombardy are positive as you say, then it is highly likely that they are not able to test enough people and have to focus on strongly suspected cases.
Other countries that have high testing rates - Germany, South Korea, all show a much lower CFR than Italy.
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I'm sure the death rate will be much lower as what we have right now in the Lombardy but it will be also much higher as what Norway has right now until we find better medication.
And let's hope we won't get a second wave even worse than this one
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