By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Teeqoz on 25 March 2020
Edit Thread
SvennoJ said:

When you are on the ball with testing, your estimates will be too low.

The mean incubation time is 5.2 days.
Mean time from illness onset to death was 20 days (In China)

So you need to compare the 14 dead to the sample size you had 15 to 20 days ago.
Hospitalizations don't happen straight away either and ICU admissions come after that.
Recovery can last a long time, 25% was still not recovered 6 weeks after the Diamond Princess went into quarantine

Plus when the health care system collapses, the ICU admission rate will the lower estimate for death rate, while a percentage of those that required hospitalization without ICU will also perish.

A worst case scenario where 8% of those that get infected don't make it through is very possible.


Even your 8% hospitalization rate would put 300K Norwegians in the hospital when 70% of the population gets infected, while Norway only has a bit over 20K hospital beds (which are likely mostly in use already) So what's going to happen with 290K Norwegians that need help?


The mortality rate entirely depends on how much medical help is available.

I did say these numbers will rise, and that includes the CFR and the hospitalization rate. However the current numbers are already enough to say that a 15% mortality rate is completely ridiculous, even as a worst case scenario, which was what I was responding to. However the progression of cases turning more serious might just as well be countered by undiagnosed cases, as we certainly have plenty of them in Norway in too.

As for the rest you are saying, everyone won't be infected at the same time, and everyone won't require hospitalization at the same time. Even if they would, it's not like every single person that would be hospitalized will die if they aren't. People are hospitalized to keep them under observation in case their condition worsens, and they might be treated with antiobiotics to prevent opportunistic bacterial infections, but everyone hospitalized case won't automatically turn critical without hospital care.

There are so many ludicrous assumptions to get to an 8% mortality rate that it's a scenario that's not worth thinking about - not in relation to the Covid19 pandemic anyway.

JRPGfan said:
Teeqoz said:

So on the contrary to what you're suggesting, younger and more healthy people  actually seem to be quite underrepresented in our data.

I HOPE your right.
If the rest of the world is as lucky as Norway is currently (14 deaths out of 3,066 people infect = 0,4%) then that doesnt sound so bad.

I suspect your wrong, and this is more dangerous than norways data seems to indicate so far.

Time will tell.

So far, china has had this virus the longest, had the most cases, and tested the most.
They have over 4% of people that get it die.

In italy its over 10% of the confirmed cases, that got the infected that died.

Norways current ~0,4% death rate is very good though.

Suspicions, hope, guesses.

I prefer data. The data shows that 15% is ridiculous.

China has done far fewer tests per capita than Norway. South Korea is another country that has a good dataset, and which seem to have gotten some control of the epidemic. They currently have a ~1.3% Case Fatality Rate, and of cases that had an outcome, 3.31% died, though that number is dropping (just 4 days ago it was 4%. Recoveries take more time than fatalities).