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Teeqoz on 25 March 2020
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JRPGfan said:
Teeqoz said:

The point is that we have tested more people.... That is why our data is more accurate.... which is why our data is useful for extrapolation, while Italy's - and Denmarks - isn't.

A 15% mortality rate isn't a worst case scenario. It's just wrong. Any projection - even a worst case scenario projection - has to look at the data. If not you might as well say that the worst case is a 100% mortality rate. Both 15% and 100% are nonsense and equally worthless as worst case secnarios.

If you don't care about the quality of the dataset, you can draw whatever conclusion you want. I could use only the cases that have died and say "oh, in my dataset, everyone with the disease died, so the worst case is a 100% mortality rate". Obviously, that is misleading at best, and malicious at worst. That is what you are doing, though taken to the extreme.

You seem to understand that the Norwegian dataset is of higher quality, so I can't understand why you'd disregard it and use lower quality datasets.

I guess I can understand your point of view.
The truth is probably somewhere it the middle though, norways data could be a outlier too (too many younger/fit people tested)?

Its hard to say.

Well, luckily for you, Norway releases the age distribution of our positive cases, so we can compare it to our overall population age distribution to see if it is a representative sample.

90-99 : ~0.9% of cases    ~ 0.9% of overall population (representative)

80-89 : ~3.3% of cases    ~3.3% of overall population (representative)

70-79 : ~5.9% of cases    ~7.9% of overall population (underrepresented)

60-69 : ~ 11.7% of cases ~ 10.8% of overall population (slightly overrepresented)

50-59 : ~ 21.4% of cases ~ 13% of overall population (very overrepresented)

40-49 : ~ 17.8% of cases ~ 13.6% of overall population (overrepresented)

30-39 : ~ 13.9% of cases ~ 13.6% of overall population (representative)

20-29 : ~ 10.5% of cases ~ 13.5% of overall population (underrepresented)

10-19 : ~ 3% of cases      ~ 12% of overall population (very underrepresented)

0-9     : ~ 0.5% of cases   ~ 11.5% of overall population (extremely underrepresented)

in conclusion, except for the age group 70-79, which is somewhat underrepresented, every age group over 30 is either overrepresented or accurately represented. Ages under 30 are in general very underrepresented compared to the population.

So on the contrary to what you're suggesting, younger and more healthy people  actually seem to be quite underrepresented in our data.