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I think the main reason why the Switch won't catch up to the DS in sales is because the Switch doesn't really have that casual appeal like the DS fan at the time. The DS released at a time before the smartphones and tablets became mainstream and most games on phones at the time were limited and shit with no real app store. At the time the DS was really the only legit option for casuals to play legit casual games like Brain Age and Nintendogs, and the high sales of those games prove how much of the DS install base were casual gamers. The DS also appealed to casuals because of it's touch screen capability, which was a feature that was very novel and interesting to casuals when it released in 2004 and was something that most mainstream cellphones couldn't offered at the time. The DS pretty much filled the gap for the casual gamers in the market before smartphone games took over.

The Switch doesn't really have that casual appeal like the DS had, most of the casual gamers who got a DS who want to play simple cheap games have completely moved on to mobile gaming and they don't feel the need to spend 300-200$ for a Switch when they're happy with gaming on their smartphones. And while the Switch may be appealing to gamers since you can play and detach joycons and play full console games anywhere on the TV or on the go, the Switch doesn't really have that appeal to attract casual gamers like the DS and Wii did where their game changing innovation and simple games filled the gap for casual gamers before smartphones hit. Nintendo has tried to appeal to more casual gamers on the Switch with stuff like Nintendo Labo, Ring Fit Adventure, 1-2 Switch. However, those games never really caught on as Nintendo had hoped as Nintendo Labo likely ended up selling disappointing for Nintendo since Nintendo didn't even mention Labo's sales in their latest financial report and while Ring Fit was a mild success selling 2.17M in about 2 months, it still would get outsold by Nintendo's more hardcore titles released around the same time period like Luigi's Mansion 3 selling 5.37M in 2 months and Links Awakening selling around 4M in 3 Months. And 1-2 Switch ended up being one of the most forgettable titles on the Switch as majority of it's 3M sales came within it's launch period where 1-2 Switch released with little competition from other games and usually early buyers purchase everything. So it's clear that those games haven't really caught on to the casual gamer crowd that the DS had as it seems like casuals aren't willling to spend 300+$ just to try out labo or Ring Fit. Maybe Animal Crossing will help the Switch appeal to the more casual crowd which I wouldn't doubt it much since Animal Crossing sold extremely well on the 3DS, selling nearly 13M copies. But even then I don't think Animal Crossing will be enough to appeal to the casual audience entirely.