| OTBWY said: Oh, hmm. I was going by this but perhaps it is not as recent as your data: https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-leads-all-democratic-candidates-support-non-white-voters-new-polls-show-1486807 It's also not very specific. But I do think that Biden's troubles will make them move over to Sanders more than likely. I can't imagine them moving over to Pete. |
The specific source I was referencing before on the opinions of black voters specifically was the most recent Quinnipiac University poll. According to that survey:
27% of black voters still support Joe Biden (down sharply from 51% in November).
22% of them now support Michael Bloomberg (this is where those former Biden supporters are mainly going).
19% of them support Bernie Sanders.
8% of them support Elizabeth Warren.
4% of them support Pete Buttigieg.
A negligible share support other candidates.
However, that's black voters only. By contrast, 40% of Latinos in New Hampshire voted for Bernie Sanders, which was much better than the 25% of the vote he got overall. And then of course there are Asian Americans and others to account for. The survey you link to simply describes the preferences of "non-white" voters in the abstract, as in to say that it combines all of those groups into one lump sum rather than breaking down the details further.
What it all means for Sanders' chances is that, as things presently stand, he has a particularly good shot at winning in states like Nevada with large Hispanic populations, but could struggle more, conversely, in states like South Carolina where most of the Democratic voters are black. Texas has a bit of both, but especially Latinos. The ideal situation for a Sanders win in the Texas Democratic primary is an even split in the votes for Biden and Bloomberg locally, i.e. for the current trajectory of things to continue, but maybe not to the point of Biden dropping out of the race before Super Tuesday on March 3rd.
