| Mnementh said: Biden Super-PAC warns before "Doomsday-scenario": https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/11/biden-pac-2020-democrats-113684 |
The hypothetical scenario that the Biden Super PAC peeps are warning of -- the possibility of this turning into a Bernie vs. Bloomberg contest by Super Tuesday -- is, in fact, looking like a real possibility. This is because...
...When you think about who Elizabeth Warren's constituency has been and the fact that New Hampshire is as close to constituting her home turf as you can get outside of her home state of Massachusetts (it immediately borders Massachusetts), you realize that tonight's outcome is crucial for the Warren campaign. This for them is realistically the end of the line: if she doesn't shock the nation by pulling out a first or second-place finish in the New Hampshire primary tonight, she might as well pack it in because what that suggests is that she can't win anywhere and that her fundraising is about to dry up. She probably will, in fact. I suspect that she'll drop out of the race before the South Carolina primary on the 29th, and probably sooner rather than later. Who will that objectively benefit? Where will the Warren people tend to go absent Warren being in the race? The Sanders camp. That would consolidate the progressive vote around a single candidate. AND...
...Don't kid yourselves, people, the Mike Bloomberg surge is very, very real. His current RCP polling average nationwide is up to 13% as of this writing, and one survey has him as high as 17% support now. He really has just simply bought his way into relevance with all of these campaign ads that I think we've been inundated with by now. Who forms the Bloomberg support base, you ask? Well...you know those former supporters of Kamala Harris and Cory Booker? You know how the cessation of those campaigns unexpectedly failed to benefit Biden in the polls? Well guess where those voters went. Yeah, Bloomberg. That's why. And he's really starting to get some big-name endorsements, including a notable supply of African American ones. I highlight the existence of a growing black support base for Michael Bloomberg because black voters form the core of Biden's support; the main reason why he has polled so well nationwide up until now. If a large pool of black voters abandons Biden for Bloomberg on Super Tuesday (which are the states where Bloomberg is campaigning), guess what that means for Biden. Yeah, his campaign is done. That's what it means. That really could happen. AND...
...As to the Buttigieg factor...well folks, let me point this out: he has no support among black people at all. It is simply not possible to win the Democratic nomination without an appreciable volume of support from African Americans because they form the core and most loyal section of Democratic voters. And let us imagine if somehow he managed to; what then would happen in the general election against Trump, realistically? You see my point? Buttigieg will not be the winner. SO...
...Bloomberg is shaping up to be the most viable candidate in the neoliberal lane of the party. Yes, really. For real. Check out what happens on Super Tuesday. And what's the most plausible result of a Bernie vs. Bloomberg contest unfolding beginning on Super Tuesday, you ask? A Bernie Sanders nomination because Bloomberg just isn't the next Barack Obama, folks. He's NOT an inspiring character and has little youth support. Plus the fact that he has to wait all the way until March to debut disadvantages his campaign structurally.
Last edited by Jaicee - on 11 February 2020
