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Slimebeast on 27 June 2008
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rocketpig said:
makingmusic476 said:
ChartsViewer said:
Hello again guys!

This week we can feel the Metal Gear Solid effect!!!! (Reminds me of Fear Effect! Great game by the way!)

PS3 - 320,414
360 - 130,483

It's +- 200.000 more consoles!

So my prediction is looking good! In last weeks PS3 didn't manage to keep up with the 50.000 more, but this week it gots 150.000 more, so it covers other weeks!

Everything is loonking good :)

See you all soon! :)

 

You do realize that this thread is rather flawed, right? You're completely ignoring holiday sales, and MGS for sure won't be the only major title for either system.

During the holidays, sales for each console will go up exponentially. Let's say the ps3 outsells the 360 by ~30% every week, equating to a ~40k gap between the two over the Spring/Summer. During the holidays, sales go up to 500-600k a week per console, so that 30% gap grows from 50k to 200k. If current trends continue, we could see the 360 selling ~500k a week this December and the ps3 selling ~700k a week.

And then you have to consider FFXIII and GT5, games that should boost the ps3's sales 1.5-2x as much as MGS4 did (though GT5's boost may have been somewhat lessened in Europe due to the release of GT5P).

Your logic is rather flawed, too. You're assuming that holiday sales will retain the same percentage gap as non-holiday sales. That isn't the case.

Let's look back to last generation. 2003, to be specific. I chose this year because it was the last year all three consoles were competing that didn't involve Halo 2 screwing up the ratios. 2003 was actually a pretty weak year for the Xbox, which only makes my point stronger:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=GC®1=All&cons2=PS2®2=All&cons3=XB®3=All&start=37717&end=37983

Pick a random week. The PS2 is outselling the Xbox and GC around 3.0-3.5:1.

Jump to November/December. That ratio decreases to 2.7-2.9:1 for the PS2/Xbox and that was during an extremely weak holiday season for Microsoft IIRC.

What does this mean? It means using non-holiday numbers to predict anything around the holiday season is pretty much a waste of your time. Buying habits drastically change during that time of year and at that point, the data for the rest of the year is pretty useless.

 

Oh com'on. That is ridiculous. Of course you can project holiday sales from regular weeks.

3.0-3.5:1 to 2.7-2.9:1 is 16% higher. A 16% change in percentage gap is not much to talk about. But if you think it is, just use it to adjust your holiday numbers and you'll be fine.