You going with vgchartz number? If its closer to 49 million nintendo would and should announced over 48.5 million. Im assuming its under 48.5 million sold.
Not necessarily, Nintendo has been known to lowball their estimates in the past.
The most infamous example being when they said Wii sold over 3 million in Dec then NPD results came and it ended up being 3.81 million.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.