Jaicee said: With just days to go before the Iowa Caucus, here's where we stand. Biden: 28.1% Sanders: 24.2% New Hampshire RCP Polling Average Sanders: 24% While these figures suggest Biden to still be the most likely nominee, I'm starting to feel more optimistic about the direction of things in this race for the first time since early October! After the Warren surge abated, I felt pessimistic about the chances of a progressive candidate winning the nomination for a change. But polling data a week out from voting day is usually the most accurate, I find, and you can see what it suggests might just happen! Let me add this headline that's pretty self-explanatory to the indications: Everyone's Drawing Huge Crowds in Iowa Except Biden. |
100% agree
And with the last polls in Nevada showing Biden and Sanders head-to-head, Biden might even loose the 3 first states.
Worse, he's at risk dropping below 15% and behind both Buttigieg and to a lesser degree Warren in NH. If Biden would get beaten not just by Sanders, but also other candidates, his electability myth is most likely shattered that moment and his election bid lost.
Biden will win SC, but his elan is gone by that point, and he will also have a Bloomberg stealing votes from him starting Super Tuesday, seriously not helping matters for him at that point.
Also, Sanders not doing well with black voters is a myth. He's not doing as well as Biden, but he still gets 25% of the black vote in the latest morning consult: https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Morning-Consult-Political-Intelligence-Weekly-Report_January-22-2020.pdf
Cerebralbore101 said: I'm starting to have second thoughts about Bernie. I love the guy, but damn if some of his policies aren't popular. Medicare for all isn't popular, even though I agree with it. Decriminalizing border crossings isn't popular (because it sounds like open borders). I really feel like Bernie will fail to carry down ballot Senators in areas that voted Trump in 2016. We absolutely need to flip the Senate, and that's already a nearly impossible task! On the flip side, we have Biden (who voted for the Iraq War, and still believes we can compromise with the GOP), and Buttigeig (who probably isn't electable due to his sexual orientation and stands no chance of getting the nomination at this point anyway.) |
Buttigieg doesn't only has little chances because of his orientation, but much worse is that only white people vote for him, just look at the morning consult poll I linked above.
But maybe it's wise to have Sanders tell you why voting for him is awesome:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjmT-zx4nyI
Really powerful message!
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