Shadow1980 said:
Despite an opening weekend that wasn't exactly record-breaking, TROS is definitely making up for that as it has been steadily closing the gap with TLJ. While I never collected any adjusted daily figures from BOM before they changed their site, current ticket prices are very close to what they were when TLJ was in theaters, so the difference for adjusted vs. non-adjusted should be minimal. Here's the non-adjusted grosses of TROS, TLJ, and, just for the hell of it, Rogue One:
Interesting bits of information here. TROS's first Monday-Thursday period was significantly better than TLJ's. Tuesday gross had a statistical tie with TLJ's first Tuesday, despite this Tuesday being Christmas Eve. Overall, despite its opening weekend falling 19.4% short of TLJ's, its first full week was only 2.3% short of TLJ's, another near-tie. Granted, a non-trivial piece of that was from Christmas Day, where TROS put up the second-biggest Christmas Day gross to date. Friday's gross for TROS was not much better than TLJ's second Friday, but this weekend should be better than TLJ's second weekend overall, seeing as TLJ didn't have to face down Christmas Eve until Sunday of its second weekend. I think after Sunday TROS will have the lead over TLJ. Of course, TLJ had its Christmas Day in Week 2, and between that and an overall extremely rare instance of a film's second Monday-Thursday period actually outperforming the first one, that presents a challenge for TROS for it own second Monday-Thursday period. Overall, TLJ dropped 43.3% in its second week. If TROS can manage even only a 40% WoW drop, that would put its LTD gross at about $463.7M, still maintaining a near-tie with TLJ. If the WoW drop for Week 2 is only 35%, that'll put it at over $478M, nearly 3% ahead of where TLJ was at after its first two weeks.
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You correctly seem to notice that TLJ was actually up during weekdays after its second weekend exactly because of Christmas and the fact that school break had just begun, but seems to forget or at least underestimate that the same sort of boost has actually been a tremendous boon to ROS as well during the last few days (ROS, and Jumanji as well, considering it's way up WoW). It's not going to have the same factors going for it again come the 30th.
Take Aquaman, for instance, which released more or less on a similar time frame a few years ago and was 80% up WoW the monday school break begun, December 21, and 80% down the next monday, December 28. Giveth and taketh away, and all of that. Or the third The Hobbit movie, which was similarly down as the New Year dawned.
