PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

[Bofferbrauer2]

Barkley said:

GProgrammer said:

Nintendo machine tend to have very bad legs, unlike their software titles. This is my main reason why I believe (near certainty) that the switch won't sell 100 million

The switch is selling too fast to sell under 100m, it might not have the legs of a PlayStation but it's definitely going to be one of the strongest Nintendo systems when it comes to legs.

I'd say the opposite to you, that the Switch reaching 100m is a near certainty.

The only way it won't is if 2019 was the peak and 2020 see's significant decline, I don't see this happening. 2021 is the year when the decline rears it's head.

My prediction:

2017 - 13.1m 
2018 - 16.5m (29.6m)
2019 - 20.5m (50.1m)
2020 - 21.5m (71.6m)
2021 - 16.5m (88.1m)
2022 - 11m (99.1m)

With years after 2022 bringing the LT total up to roughly 110m.

I don't see no reason at all for the sales to drop off Rick's cliff like that starting 2021 except maybe wishful thinking.

The Wii dropped off so much because of Nintendo stopping making games for it and instead focusing on the 3DS and the upcoming Wii U, and due to this the casual consumers flocked to 360 and Kinect instead while Gamers waited for games that weren't coming anymore. That's something that certainly won't happen with the Switch, as Nintendo repeatedly stated that they want to run the Switch for longer than the usual 5-6 years; because they don't have another console or handheld on the side to support and because neither Microsoft or Sony are producing anything similar to what the Switch delivers.

I could see 2021 going down a bit, but probably stay at around 18-19M. However, the real culprit here is your 2022 prediction, where you're predicting a crash just like the Wii did. That won't happen. Sales will drop of course due to age, but I'm expecting more something like 15-16M and nothing like a crash down to 11M like you're predicting.