Rumor:PS5 & Anaconda Scarlet GPU on par with RTX 2080, Xbox exclusives focus on Cross gen, Developer complain about Lockhart.UPDATE: Windows Central said Xbox Anaconda target 12 teraflop

[EricHiggin]

DonFerrari said:

EricHiggin said:

A question to ask would be if PS4 was at XB1 spec of 1.3TF, and XB1 was at PS4 spec of 1.8TF, yet their prices remained the same, how would that have changed the sales of those consoles early on, even with the DRM nonsense? Now if you take into account where XB1 and PS4 stand now, with everything that's happened this gen, and ask yourself, what if the hardware outcome is the same as last gen, with Lockhart being weaker, but this time being significantly cheaper than PS5 in terms of pricing, how will that effect next gens early sales?

Even if PS4 and XB1 costed the same and specs were swapped PS4 would still win, but by a lot smaller difference (USA would have stayed with XB1 instead of favored PS4). But PS4 1.3T @399 vs X1 1.8T @499, then we would have an intermediary state. So for your proposition instead of 130M we are looking for PS4, perhaps 100-110M total, and for Xbox instead of 50-60M it could achieve 80M.

If Lockhart can get a worthy lead due to it's lower price, that would force devs to focus more on lockhart, and then worry about PS5, and then Anaconda after that. While third party PS5 games would be superior, they probably wouldn't be earth shattering by any means, and so would an extra $100 be worth it for PS5 to a casual? Now this would basically make Anaconda similar to XB1X in terms of how much better it is vs it's competition, so it's sales may very well suffer, but will MS really care as long as they had the Scarlett family sales lead overall?

I ask you to look at PS3 vs X360. Xbox was 100 or more cheaper the whole gen and had a superior performance on 3rd party for most of the gen. PS3 was still able to win. So with a at most 100 lead over PS5 but much weaker and everything will show that then PS5 won't have much to be afraid. And with this way you have what is called an anchor in marketing. "ok at 299 you can have this barebone version, for 100 more you get this much more powerful unit, and if you fork another 100 you gain a little more". This is made in several places to put the barebone at an already high price to entice people for the most expensive because they won't think the more expensive is to expensive when the difference in price isn't big but the quantity is, people don't look that the cheaper is to expensive, they just think the most expensive isn't that much more expensive. That is a strategy used on a same line from the supplier, but Sony will take advantage of that because in the scenario of Lockhart 299, PS5 399, Anaconda 499 they can put as the middle man that is much more valuable than the cheaper and cheaper than the top one. That is why I said that if Lockhart is 199 or PS5 is 499 (and Anaconda 599) this all changes and sure at this way Lockhart would have a very good chance of pushing many sales.

PS5 first party games should end up incredibly more impressive in this situation, but would that be enough to draw the casuals in vs a cheaper Lockhart with Game Pass? Part of the reason PS4 was able to succeed to the extent it has, is because of it's early lead. Word got out that PS4 was the place to play, and it simply grew from there because PS made sure to keep the beast fed. The start of next gen will be a reset of sorts though. If MS can play their cards right, they could give PS5 a tougher time than PS4 had, with again, weaker hardware, but more affordable this time around.

You are using many ifs. But yes MS should be able to put a better fight against PS5 than they did to PS4. But again we hear all the "reasons why the 6 months of launch window made it impossible for MS to recover or outsell Sony", when a much harder situation was there for PS3 and it made possible.

Switch has made it clear that you don't necessarily need a ton of power to sell boat loads of hardware. With MS and Nin being a little cozy, I don't think it would be crazy for MS to take note of this. That doesn't stop them from offering the most powerful next gen console either, even if the games on it aren't all that impressive. When it comes to casuals who don't do their research, the cheapest available, or highest specs can certainly be enough for them depending on what they are after. MS would likely sell enough Anaconda's to cover the input costs, so as long as they keep those gamers from going to SNY, it may still be seen as a small win for the time being in their eyes.

MS isn't Nintendo, and Switch can do it because of both the exclusives it have and portability. None of this is a strength of Lockhart.

It's really hard to say what may play out next gen. How many people have a massive stash of digital games on PS4, and how many feel locked down to the PS brand because of it? How many new customers have played PS4 first party titles, and how many are so hooked that they have to have a PS5? While I think this certainly gives PS an advantage no doubt, I don't think it guarantee's them PS4 level success again by any means.

Sure there is no guarantee. And the past doesn't assure nothing in the future, but we use it as basis to predict most likely outcomes. Anyway yes it is possible that Sony fucks up and/or MS hits gold I just think it isn't much likely. For me we will have another gen with PS over 100M and Xbox under 80M.

I agree PS4 would still win but not by near as much like you've mentioned, barring any unforeseen problems for either brand.

PS3 vs 360 didn't have a higher end XB SKU above PS3 though. While I don't think Anaconda would sell a lot if more expensive than PS5, I do think just having it as the most powerful console for the next few years anyway, would change the image of Lockhart to a degree. That wouldn't make Lockhart any better than it actually was, but it's perception won't be seen as poorly as if it were the only XB console next gen. Kind of like a little brother who's a pain and pushes the limits to the point where most people would definitely get their butts kicked, yet as long as big brother exists, the perception of little brother is somewhat different than it would be otherwise. You can still try to kick his ass, but you're definitely less likely to if you know you might end up having to deal with big brother eventually. With Anaconda around, Lockhart won't just be the weak little console that's going to get 'beat up' by PS5, even if Anaconda sales aren't that strong. Anaconda will partially legitimize Lockhart in some consumers eyes.

You also have to put a spotlight on the RROD. MS didn't have that problem this gen, and likely won't next gen, so that significant problem won't scare consumers away. While more than a few victims actually went out and bought a second or third 360 after the fact, just as many if not more, didn't buy one because of their reliability issues. If the RROD had never happened, 360 very likely would have stayed ahead of PS3 to the end.

PS5 would certainly be the value option in these scenario's, but will the people who want to jump into next gen asap, who typically can't financially, just pick up a Lockhart because they can? That doesn't necessarily mean they are locked into the XB camp for good. They might stay with Lockhart, or maybe wait until PS5 drops in price and trade Lockhart for it plus savings, or flat out upgrade to Anaconda instead eventually.

Switch nor Wii had next gen performance. Power isn't everything though. There does have to be something else along with it to make it worth it, like motion controls or hybrid design. XB will have Game Pass/Xcloud as their something else. At $299, Lockhart would have little competition. XB1X almost certainly would have to be dropped, and PS4 Pro will only be temporary until PS5 Pro, 2 or 3 years down the road, where as Lockhart would be around for the entire gen. Also assuming it has a similar price to PS4 Pro, and PS exclusives are now only on PS5, are you going to buy that outdated third party only hardware, or the up to date XB hardware with it's exclusives?

I'm not saying PS needs to fear a sales reversal with MS. That would make this gen's mistakes seem like a joke. Just that if MS shows up and puts forward a worthy effort, we're likely to see an competitive race and not another blow out.