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curl-6 on 09 December 2019
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PAOerfulone said:
curl-6 said:

I still reckon 130-140 million personally; with how well its selling I just can't see it dropping off fast enough to not reach 130m, that'd mean selling less than 20 million after this year and that just seems too little, especially considering it'll probably still be produced and shipped for another 3 years or possibly even more.

Right now, the PS4 is down 22.8% YoY from last year. If that percentage holds, then it would finish 2019 with 14,110,050 units sold, which would bring its overall figures to around 106 million. In 2013, the year the PS4 launched, the PS3 dropped 31% YoY. If the YoY drop next year were 25%, with the PS5's launch, then the PS4 would end up selling 10,582,537 units in 2020. In 2014, the PS4's first full year, the PS3 dropped a whopping 57% YoY. Then another 62% in 2015, 61% in 2016, then finally, 70% in 2017. Let's say the PS4 drops 50, 60, 60, and 70% in the 4 years after 2020, that would mean it would sell like this:

2021: 5,291,269
2022: 2,116,508
2023: 846,603
2024: 253,981

So the next 5 years, in total would be a total of 19,090,898 units. Add that figure to the 106 million unit figure it should be at by the end of this year, that would bring it to a little over 125 million units. So, it's actually not that unlikely for the PS4 to finish under 130 million, it's as likely as finishing over.

50/50 chance, both ways I'd say.

I feel like due to its much greater sales and popularity PS4 will not drop off as fast as PS3 did. It's also made of more off-the-shelf parts so it could go to lower prices than PS3 ever did like $199.