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VideoGameAccountant said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah 2023 sounds about right; give it 6 years before replacement, 5 would be cutting it too short for such a successful system. 

It will probably be 7 rather than 6. 7 years is the norm now for consoles. The former president Kimishima stated they intend to support the Switch longer than the 5-6 year lifespan (stating perhaps a 7-10 year lifespan). 7 is the safest bet so likely March 2024 or Holiday 2023. 

Here's the quote: https://metro.co.uk/2018/02/02/nintendo-plans-support-switch-7-10-years-7281632/

"Support" doesn't necessarily mean "not replace" though; 3DS has replaced after 6 years but still got support in 2017 and 2018 after the release of the Switch.