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Ryng on 30 November 2019
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thismeintiel said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

PS4 total 2019 sales are down YOY by more than 36%, not 25%.

The last 2 months, PS4 was down YOY by more than 50% (actually closer with -55%)

Depends on what info you trust and what region you're looking at. If you look at shipment data, which is the only concrete info we have, the PS4 is only ~16% down for the FY so far. Sony only expects to be down by 24% for the entire FY. 

My guess is the holiday quarter shouldn't be too far down, as demand for a cheaper PS4 is obviously there.  It was down only 10% last year.  I could see it being anywhere from 10% to 18% down, or 6.6M-7.3M.  1M+ easily coming from the NA in Nov, with a steep decrease in Dec if there are no more deals.

Q4 will probably be significantly down, though. I see it being down anywhere from 23% to 42%, or shipping 1.5M-2M.

01. We are talking about USA, using Worldwide numbers doesn't make sense. In USA PS4 has been down YOY by well over 50% the last months, and like i said, in total the PS4 is down YOY by almost 40%. In any case we talk about a trend way worse than the 25% you mentioned. 1 million in November can still happen but need a way better YOY performance than what it had so far, that's what i'm saying.

02. Well if we want to talk about Worldwide, using shipments numbers is not a good thing to do. Sony clearly overshipped PS4 those past months, and is not something that "i feel like it", it's basically obvius looking at Sony forecast decreasing for 2 consecutive quarters, and also from some data we got from some important markets. (Mostly USA and Japan, but also some Europe like UK, or Spain). In every markets, PS4 showed a YOY drop way worse than what worldwide looks like. As for Sony forecast, they expect PS4 shipments to reach 13.5 million for the FY (down from the 15m the last quarter). This mean they expect to ship only 7.5 million units from October to March. My guess would be around 5.7 million this quarter, and 1.8 million in Jan-Mar 2020. In any case, don't expect over 6 million units for this quarter. Sony had much time to look at PS4 worldwide sales and adjust the forecast, if by the end of October they expected no more than 13.5m this FY, they aren't gonna beat those numbers that easy as many in this thread think, unless sales are a lot better than expected this holiday, but right now there is no reason to think this.