So.. CNBC says Xbox has sold 46.9 WW, any thoughts?

[PAOerfulone]

zorg1000 said:

That is exactly how it will go, annual sales could be something like this

2017-13m (Switch launch)

2018-16m

2019-20m

2020-17m (PS5/XB4 launch)

2021-14m

2022-10m

2023-6m (Switch 2 launch)

2024-3m

2025-1m

Total-100m

and people will still claim that Switch sales were affected by PS5/XB4 despite having a completely normal and healthy sales curve.

I actually think they're going to fall just short of 20 million this year, probably around 18.5-19 million is more likely I think. I'm starting to also think, more and more, that 2020 might be the peak year. The Switch will enter the next year with white hot momentum between Sword/Shield and the Lite model, and then not too long afterwards, we'll have Animal Crossing: New Horizons, which will be the biggest Q1 title for the Switch since Breath of the Wild. And there's going to be at least one more big, AAA Nintendo game. I think that game will be whatever the new 3D Mario game will be, rather than Breath of the Wild 2. And I'm almost certain we'll get new Pokemon games, probably the Diamond/Pearl remakes fans have been expecting and wanting since OR/AS. A year being headlined by Animal Crossing, 3D Mario, and Pokemon, for a system that's selling for $200. I'm almost certain that Breath of the Wild 2 is going to be a 2021 game. And I also think we're going to get a new hardware revision that year that's going to be upgraded hardware much like the Game Boy Color/DSi/New 3DS/PS4 Pro/Xbox One X. And I'm going to keep calling it the Nintendo Switch+ until it is either dis-confirmed or named otherwise.

And I think 2021 and 2022 are going to be considerably higher than you think, especially 2022 as I think that's when we're getting Pokemon Gen 9 as a final swan song for the Switch, much like Sun/Moon was for the 3DS. I also think it's when we'll finally get Metroid Prime 4. And I think it's going to sell well above 100 million. I think 100 million is actually on the lower end of potential lifetime sales, rather than the higher end. The way I can see it playing out is this:

2017: 13 million 
2018: 16 million
2019: 19 million
2020: 20 million (Animal Crossing, 3D Mario, Pokemon Gen 4 remakes)
2021: 17 million (Breath of the Wild 2, Switch+ revision)
2022: 14 million (Pokemon Gen 9, Metroid Prime 4)
2023: 8 million (Switch 2 launch)
2024: 4 million
2025: 2 million
2026 to discontinued: 1 million

Total: 114 million