So.. CNBC says Xbox has sold 46.9 WW, any thoughts?

[PAOerfulone]

Conina said:

PAOerfulone said:

That's nice. Are you writing a research paper?

Sorry if I want to have an informed discussion supported by facts instead of pure bashing and wild speculations. Obviously here is not the right place for that.

PAOerfulone said:

Doesn't explain where they got that 46.9 million number from or the fact that the 0.3% of sales coming from Japan does not match at all with the actual statistic you get when you divide 110,000 units (the amount of Xbox One units reportedly sold in Japan) by 0.003, which gets you to 36,666,667 units. 

Even if we're being generous and say that the percentage of sales is actually 0.25%, and we just rounded up to 0.3%, that would still only equate to 44 million units sold, which is WAY off that 46.9 million mark. 

So they obviously fucked up somewhere. And unless we get numbers or confirmation from the only party or source that matters, Microsoft, then we can't take what these guys are saying seriously, because what they're saying doesn't make any sense.

What you don't understand (or ignore):

• the 0.3% of sales coming from Japan aren't a fact, they are an estimate with margins of error
• the Famitsu numbers aren't facts but estimates with margins of error
• the VGC numbers aren't facts but estimates with margins of error
• the IDC numbers aren't facts but estimates with margins of error
• the numbers of the analyst Daniel Ahmad aren't facts but estimates with margins of error
• the numbers analysts X, Y or Z aren't facts but estimates with margins of error
• we don't know which numbers are the closest to the truth until Microsoft gives that information eventually
• multiplying or dividing estimate A with estimate b to prove that estimate C is wrong is a fool's errand and only serves confirmation bias

What YOU don't understand AND ignore:

- I DID account for margins of error, that's why I was generous enough to give the 0.25% number, which is the lowest possible number you need to round up to 0.3%. And it's still well below the mark.
- You can't give two different statistics/estimates that completely contradict each other after you do the math and expect to be taken seriously. That's not how estimating data works. It's one or the other, you can't have both.
- All numbers and estimates are just that, estimates with margins of error. But some are more reliable than others. That's the point. Why should I take this source, who can't get their estimates straight, seriously over other sources who stick to one narrative, one story, and one estimate, AND have a much better track record of accuracy on their resumes than these guys do? The same guys who, as Rol mentioned earlier, completely botched PS4 sales figures that completely contradicted figures from Sony themselves, BEFORE they published their own? Every analyst is wrong from time to time, including Famitsu, VGC, and Daniel Ahmad... but Good God... there's being wrong, and then there's just not giving a shit. 

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 12 October 2019