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I think $1.5 billion or maybe just slightly less.  Here is the advantage of a spinoff movie: even if it sucks it doesn't really harm the main series.  Rogue One didn't make as much as The Last Jedi, mostly because Rogue One is not part of the main series.  But that also means that Solo doesn't really harm the brand either, even though the movie sucked.  Solo isn't part of the main series.

The big question really is: How much did The Last Jedi harm the brand?  I know The Last Jedi had some irritating parts, but it was overall a good movie.  It was not bad on the level of Solo.  On top of that the problems with The Last Jedi can basically be boiled down to this: J. J. Abrams didn't direct it.  I mean that is definitely why there were inconsistencies between it and The Force Awakens.  So, I think people will come back to see the final conclusion of this trilogy, especially since J.J. Abrams is directing it.

It won't do The Force Awakens numbers though.  A lot of its sales came from decades of built up Star Wars demand.  But people like to come back and see the conclusion, so I do think The Rise of Skywalker will do better than The Last Jedi.