I do not think the lite version will have a major impact on sales after it's first launch week.
I think you're going to surprised.
In Japan especially where gaming on the go rules the roost, the Lite's more portable nature and lower price point will be very appealing.
In the US, only a quarter of 3DS owners have upgraded to a Switch so far; no doubt a lot of portable gamers find the base model too bulky and expensive compared to what they're used to. The Lite fixes this.
It will also be a very tempting proposition to parents buying for their kids, as it's not only cheaper but has fewer small parts to break or lose.
Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.