Nintendo quarterly results (Switch 36.87 million)

[Jumpin]

Soundwave said:

PS4's year 4/5/6 are quite impressive, I don't see the Switch being able to keep pace with that unless some out of left field happens.

The PS4 Pro has definitely helped Sony be able to enjoy better legs in the back cycle of the product cycle, and their 15 million target this fiscal year is probably low balling it as they did last year. They just have a much broader range of franchise properties that are continually introduced because of the overall breadth of developer support.

You look at 2018 and 2019 alone and the PS4 got/is getting things like Spider-Man, Red Dead Redemption 2, Sekiro, Monster Hunter World, Final Fantasy VII Remake (which is basically its own thing), Kingdom Hearts 3, Devil May Cry 5, Cyberpunk 2077, Days Gone, Death Stranding as new franchise entries to the PS4 that late in the life cycle. Rather than having to rely continually on just GTA, FIFA, Call of Duty, Uncharted, Destiny, NBA 2K, Resident Evil, Final Fantasy (non-VII), Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid, etc. which have already appeared on the system.

Whereas Nintendo is going to basically have used up most of its AAA IP by the time Animal Crossing releases next March and then is going to likely have to double/triple dip into its franchise stable. Sony just has a much deeper pool of IPs they can draw on to keep sales high without having to use the same 10-12 properties two or three times and they have a Pro model which I think has given them a solid boost for the back half of their product cycle. That's tough to keep pace with. 

AAA isn't a type of IP, it's a process of how a game is made. Nintendo has dozens of franchises they can make an "AAA" out of. It's not really important to their business model because Nintendo is already outselling Sony without the need for AAA games.

Most of those franchises you listed are not only NOT Sony franchises. Not only that, they're franchises which are either already available on the Switch or will be in the future.

When taking into account Sony's actual published games, only three of them on the PS4 have shipped above 10 million (10 games total have shipped over 10 million on PS4, Horizon Zero Dawn is the only exclusive not published by Sony). After 2 years and 1 quarter on the market, Nintendo is already ahead of Sony with 5 published games exceeding 10 million, and will almost certainly have 8 by the end of the year; 9 if Astral Chain turns out to sell very well.

Another thing to consider is that Nintendo games often have much longer periods of relevance on the market than Sony games. The sales of those 5 games are still very much in progress: Breath of the Wild alone has sold 2 million units in 2019, Mario Kart 8 has sold 3 million so far this year.

Aside from dormant franchises, Nintendo has this uncanny ability to take old franchises and spin them into something brand-new. We could have a Mario RPG, a new 3D high-pace action-packed Kid Icarus game, a high-end Lylat Wars-style Star Fox game, a 3D Donkey Kong Country platformer/adventure, a new Diddy Kong Racing, a beefed-up Xenoblade Chronicles X game (which is basically its own thing), a new Health-Pack/Fit game (actually shocked Nintendo hasn't dipped into this well yet), 1080 Snowboarding (we're due for a major snowboard title), they could resurrect the Cruisin franchise and pump it up. And these aren't just random guesses, Nintendo has already done this in past generations - they just haven't released anything this generation yet in those styles.

You can't really make a serious argument that any company has an intellectual property library as deep as Nintendo. Additionally, the Switch isn't a console whose sales trajectory you can predict since there's never been a console-like Switch released before; additionally, Switch's sales trajectory is already different from any past consoles, and the fact that it has multiple form factors with multiple pricing tiers is a new game for dedicated console platforms. It can be noted that Switch managed to stay on par with PS4 sales with no price drop (PS4 had its first in less than 2 years) and it's first real shift in price models will occur later this year with the new models.

Can Switch sell 40 million+ in the next 2 years? It's possible when taking the variables into account. The new models, price points, a massive IP about to release, and the current actively selling software. All of these factors create a lot of hooks for new customers: someone who wants Zelda or Mario Kart but doesn't want to pay above 200 USD for a Switch will now be purchasing one; Pokemon fans who didn't have a Switch yet will now be purchasing one; new people who are interested in being a part of Switch's growing library of local multiplayer games will continue purchasing them (IMO, this is the main force selling the Switch right now, but I work in an office with a lot of gamers, so that is my window).

What we can say without a doubt:
* Nintendo will extend its lead as the top publisher by a significant margin this generation.
* The Nintendo Switch will sell many tens of millions of more units.
* The Nintendo Switch will have the most games that exceed the 10 million mark.